未知机构：信达策略近期比较重要的高频变化近期长期宏观逻辑变化较小比如-20250603

Summary of Key Points Industry Overview - The report discusses recent high-frequency changes in the macroeconomic environment, indicating that long-term macro logic has remained relatively stable, with factors such as domestic policies, DeepSeek, and tariffs showing little variation. The importance of high-frequency data has increased, revealing a predominantly weak trend in recent data [1][1]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Decline in Commodity Prices: There has been a continuous decline in the prices of black and building materials, with the recent pace of decline accelerating. This trend has persisted for a considerable time [1]. 2. Real Estate Market Trends: The sales of second-hand homes in the real estate sector have experienced a seasonal decline, which aligns with the post-peak policy heat. The extent of this decline is currently under observation [1]. 3. Travel Data During Festivals: Travel data during the Dragon Boat Festival showed weak growth compared to the May Day holiday, indicating a year-on-year decline [1]. 4. Stock Market Financing Balance: Since April, the financing balance in the stock market has remained weak. During the index adjustment period in April, there was a noticeable decline in financing balance, which did not recover even when the index rebounded [1]. 5. ETF Share Decline: Following a significant increase in ETF shares during the volatility of March-April, there has been a decline in ETF shares since May as the market stabilized [1]. Additional Important Insights - The market is expected to fluctuate within the range of 3200-3400 from May to July, with a potential significant breakthrough anticipated in Q4 [2].