什么是关税不确定性下的最佳决策？

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the tire industry and its relation to the automotive supply chain, particularly focusing on the impact of recent tariff policies in the United States and their effects on both domestic and international markets [1][2][10]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Tariff Impact on Tire Industry: - The operating rate of semi-steel tires was initially high in Q1 2025 but dropped to last year's levels after the implementation of equal tariffs in April and further declined with the introduction of tariffs on auto parts in May [1][2]. - This indicates a sustained negative impact from tariffs on the tire industry [2]. 2. Consumer Behavior and Inventory Management: - U.S. consumers showed a cautious approach to spending, with durable goods orders spiking in March but declining to the lowest growth rate of the year by April, reflecting increased uncertainty [1][3][4]. - Companies are advised to focus on inventory management and adjust production and sales strategies in response to changing demand [1]. 3. U.S. Import Trends: - In Q1 2025, U.S. imports accounted for nearly 13% of consumer spending, with industrial goods imports increasing by 53% year-over-year, while energy imports remained stable [5][6]. - There was a notable decline in imports of automobiles and parts, attributed to domestic price wars in the automotive sector [6]. 4. Domestic Economic Conditions: - The domestic economy entered a low season in May, with declines in asphalt and cement mill operating rates, and a drop in rebar demand [8]. - However, the issuance of government bonds and special bonds may support infrastructure development [8]. 5. Economic Performance in Q2 2025: - The overall economic performance has shown seasonal weakness, with a decline in operating rates and low PTA prices [9]. - New home sales have rebounded to last year's levels, but the second-hand housing market remains weak [9]. 6. Manufacturing PMI Data: - May's manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.5, indicating a slight increase but still below the growth threshold, reflecting the impact of tariffs and other uncertainties [12][18]. - The service sector showed resilience, with a business activity expectation index reaching 56.5, indicating strong performance in productive services [19]. 7. Future Economic Predictions: - The upcoming months are expected to be challenging due to seasonal factors and the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies, which may continue to impact manufacturing negatively [20]. - There is a need for potential policy measures to support domestic demand and stabilize production growth [20]. Other Important Insights - The records highlight the complex interplay between tariff policies, consumer behavior, and inventory management, emphasizing the need for companies to remain agile in their strategies [2][4][10]. - The discussion also touches on the broader economic cycles, indicating that the current tariff uncertainties are beginning to yield to cyclical economic pressures [10][21].