关税担忧再起，内需韧性支撑 - “策略周中谈”

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Chinese market, U.S.-China trade relations, and various sectors including consumer goods, technology, and dividend stocks. Core Points and Arguments 1. U.S.-China Tariff Concerns The U.S. has increased tariff threats against China, particularly targeting AI and chip design software exports, which may disrupt trade negotiations and worsen U.S.-China relations [1][3][4] 2. Short-term Tariff Impact The likelihood of imposing new tariffs in the short term is low due to the U.S. retail sector's peak ordering season, with a 90-day grace period before any potential tariffs take effect. However, risks may rise post-grace period [5][6] 3. Judicial Intervention in Trade The U.S. judicial system's involvement in trade disputes may gradually reduce the extremity of tariff increases, indicating a potential shift in tariff authority back to Congress in the long term [6] 4. Dividend Stocks in June June typically sees seasonal pressure on dividend stocks due to profit-taking, leading to lower excess returns and win rates despite being a peak dividend distribution period [7][8] 5. Long-term Outlook for Dividend Stocks Despite short-term volatility, dividend stocks remain strategically significant in a low-interest-rate environment, with high dividend yields observed in indices [9] 6. Focus on Emerging Consumption Sectors The market is currently focused on service consumption, new consumption, and biomedicine, which are supported by policies and show strong performance. Notable companies in these sectors are less crowded, presenting investment opportunities [10][11] 7. Weakness in Traditional Consumer Sectors Traditional consumer sectors like home appliances and automobiles are underperforming due to declining consumer interest and the cessation of government subsidies, leading to concerns about their future growth [12][13] 8. Technology Sector Trends The technology sector is expected to rebound in the short term, with a long-term focus on significant capital expenditures and breakthroughs in areas like AI and robotics [14] 9. Anti-Tariff Themes The anti-tariff theme is performing steadily, with sectors like rare earths benefiting. The market is gradually desensitizing to tariff concerns, avoiding significant volatility [15] 10. Recommended Industries Key recommended industries include beauty care, biomedicine, computing, non-ferrous metals, social services, agriculture, defense, and retail, all of which are seen as having good growth potential [16][17] 11. Market Outlook The market is expected to remain in a narrow fluctuation pattern, supported by domestic demand resilience, with a focus on service consumption and emerging sectors as key growth drivers [18]