Cameco(CCJ) - 2024 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported strong fourth quarter and annual results for 2024, with expectations for continued strong performance in 2025 supported by a long-term contract portfolio and Tier one assets [8][21] - Adjusted net earnings reflect a return to Tier one production levels, higher sales volumes, and an improvement in average realized prices [21][22] - The uranium segment delivered just under 34 million pounds in 2024, with production slightly exceeding expectations due to strong performance from the McArthur River Key Lake operation [21][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The uranium segment produced approximately 23.4 million pounds in 2024, with production from the McArthur River Key Lake operation setting a new annual production record [22][24] - Production from Inkai was impacted by supply chain issues, resulting in a total production of 7.8 million pounds, about 600,000 pounds lower than in 2023 [24] - The company plans to produce 18 million pounds at both McArthur River Key Lake and Cigar Lake in 2025, with production plans for Inkai remaining uncertain [24][25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Utilities have purchased less than 40% of the uranium needed to operate through 2040, indicating a significant supply pressure in the mid-2030s [18] - The company has commitments to deliver an average of about 28 million pounds of uranium over the next five years, with a long-term book totaling approximately 220 million pounds [15][16] - The conversion segment is experiencing historic price levels, with prices driven by demand and supply dynamics [16][101] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a disciplined strategy that emphasizes long-term contracts and managing supply in accordance with customer needs [20][21] - There is a strong belief that the risk to uranium and nuclear fuel supplies is greater than the risk to durable demand, positioning the company for growth [10][11] - The company is exploring opportunities to improve operational flexibility and efficiency while enhancing safety performance and reducing environmental impact [20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about supportive market conditions for nuclear energy, driven by geopolitical uncertainty and the need for clean energy [9][10] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the expected growth in nuclear demand, with a strong balance sheet to manage risks [20][19] - Management noted that the current contracting environment is constructive, with utilities needing to secure long-term contracts to meet future demand [34][35] Other Important Information - The company has successfully refinanced $500 million in unsecured debt, extending maturity to 2031, and fully repaid a $600 million floating rate term loan [25][26] - The company is monitoring potential U.S. tariffs on Canadian energy products and has taken proactive steps to mitigate any potential impact [27][28] - Westinghouse has reached a resolution in its technology and export dispute, which may open doors for future cooperation and new build opportunities [26] Q&A Session All Questions and Answers Question: Update on contracting activity and market conditions - Management noted that while term volumes were down year-over-year, term prices increased significantly, indicating a constructive market for future supply [33][34] Question: Impact of production suspension at Inkai on 2025 levels - Management confirmed a strong long-term relationship with Kazatomprom and indicated no change in strategy despite recent production hiccups [41][42] Question: Update on AP1000 builds and Westinghouse cooperation - Management expressed excitement about the Westinghouse deal and the potential for new builds, emphasizing the importance of long-term contracts and market access clarity [44][45] Question: Impact of potential Russian sanctions lifting on uranium market - Management indicated that the growth plan does not depend on sanctions and that supply-demand fundamentals remain strong [56][57] Question: Mitigating steps regarding potential tariffs - Management confirmed that new contracts include clauses addressing potential tariffs, ensuring no material impact on the company [68][69] Question: Changes in U.S. utility customer behavior regarding contracts - Management stated that the proposed tariff is largely irrelevant at the moment, as demand remains inelastic for contracted volumes [93][94] Question: Conversion market pressures and potential expansions - Management acknowledged significant pressure on the conversion market and emphasized the need for clear market access rules to restart operations [99][102]