谐波减速器：差齿传动，持续进化

Summary of Harmonic Reducer Conference Call Industry Overview - The harmonic reducer market is expected to see significant growth due to the rising demand from humanoid robots, with annual production potentially reaching 1 million units, leading to a demand of 10 million units, five times the current market demand, indicating a market potential of hundreds of billions to thousands of billions [1][4][27]. Market Dynamics - The current harmonic reducer market is dominated by Harmonic Drive, holding over 50% market share, followed by Greentech with around 15%, and emerging domestic companies holding a small portion [1][5]. - The global harmonic reducer market size is approximately 3 billion RMB, with an annual demand of about 2 million units, primarily for industrial robots. The demand is expected to grow at an annual rate of about 10% [1][16]. Key Insights - The core barriers in the harmonic reducer market include material selection (high fatigue resistance and purity), high-precision gear design, and advanced manufacturing equipment. The material of the flexible wheel is particularly critical as it directly affects product lifespan and efficiency [1][2][7]. - Humanoid robots primarily utilize planetary and harmonic reducers, with harmonic reducers being favored for their compact size and high precision, especially in upper body joints [1][8][9]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is shifting, with domestic manufacturers increasing their market share. Companies like Laifu, Dazhu, and new entrants such as Slin and Kodali are planning to launch production capacities by 2025 [3][5][21]. - The market is expected to face a supply-demand imbalance starting in 2027 if humanoid robots reach the anticipated scale, with demand potentially exceeding supply [3][22]. Investment Opportunities - The humanoid robot sector presents a promising investment opportunity, particularly for companies with strong technical and engineering capabilities, such as Greentech, Kodali, and Slin, which are expected to be key players in the future [6][41]. Production and Manufacturing - The production process of harmonic reducers involves several critical steps, including material selection, high-precision gear design, and advanced manufacturing techniques. The manufacturing process is expected to be tightly controlled to ensure product quality and performance [7][15]. Future Projections - By 2030, the demand for harmonic reducers in humanoid robots could reach 3.5 million units, with a market space estimated at over 30 billion RMB. The industry is expected to see significant growth, driven by advancements in technology and increased production capacities [27][29]. Company-Specific Insights - Harmonic Drive is a major supplier for Tesla, with a global capacity of about 2 million units but currently operating at only 50% capacity. The company has faced challenges, including a decline in revenue due to the pandemic [30]. - Greentech has made significant progress in the Tesla robot project, receiving small batch orders and planning to expand capacity to meet future demand [31]. - Kodali has shown strong performance in the structural components sector and is actively developing harmonic reducers, with a focus on innovative materials [32]. - Other companies like Meihu and Fengguang Precision are also gaining traction in the domestic market, indicating a competitive landscape with potential for growth [33]. Conclusion - The harmonic reducer industry is poised for substantial growth driven by the demand from humanoid robots and advancements in technology. Companies with strong manufacturing capabilities and strategic partnerships, particularly with major players like Tesla, are likely to emerge as leaders in this evolving market.