钨：硬质合金需求怎么看

Summary of Tungsten Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The global tungsten demand is expected to remain stable, but China may face overcapacity and export restrictions, leading to high domestic prices due to foreign pressure [1][3] - Tungsten carbide is the main application of tungsten, with cutting tools accounting for over 45% and continuing to grow, while mining alloys account for 30% and wear parts for 25% [1][5] - China is the largest tungsten producer and holder, with approximately 44% of global reserves and 85% of global production [1][7] Key Points and Arguments - Black tungsten concentrate prices have reached a ten-year high at 173,000 RMB/ton, supported by export controls, reduced inventory, and increased mining costs [2][23] - The overall tungsten usage is measured by tungsten ore extraction, with about 122,000 tons mined annually, of which China uses approximately 65,000 tons [3] - The overseas market is highly dependent on Chinese tungsten resources, with expectations of continued reliance in the next three years [4] Economic Analysis - Black tungsten concentrate has a higher grade and lower extraction costs compared to white tungsten concentrate, which has a lower grade and higher costs [6] - The cost structure in tungsten products varies significantly, with tungsten carbide in hard alloys accounting for 80% to 85% of the overall cost [9] Market Dynamics - Rising prices have led to difficulties in price transmission for tungsten carbide companies, with downstream customer demand being weak [10][11] - Companies are responding to cost pressures by raising prices or signing annual agreements with long-term suppliers [11] - The hard alloy industry faces intense competition, with several large groups dominating the market [20] Future Outlook - The current high prices of black tungsten concentrate may continue to rise, with predictions of reaching 190,000 RMB/ton, but this will likely stimulate increased mining activity and market balance [24][25] - The high profit margins currently observed may not be sustainable, as they are influenced by speculative factors rather than pure demand [26] Additional Insights - The hard alloy market is segmented, with cutting tools being a high-value area, while mining alloys focus on cost-effectiveness [12][13] - The impact of rising tungsten prices on profit margins is significant, with potential for negative margins if price increases are not matched by order adjustments [19] - The industry is moving towards high-precision, high-value products, particularly in cutting tools and mining equipment, with a notable trend towards domestic substitution for imported products [20][21]