关税90天期限渐行渐近、劳动力市场数据稳定、美债并未脱离基本面

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. economy, trade negotiations, and the labor market. Core Points and Arguments 1. Trade Negotiations and Tariffs - The U.S. is approaching a 90-day deadline for trade negotiations, with three potential outcomes: reaching agreements, extending the deadline, or reinstating tariffs. The likelihood of extending the deadline is high, but reinstating tariffs could lead to market turmoil [1][5][6]. 2. Market Reactions to Trade Talks - The U.S. stock market showed positive performance, with the S&P 500 index surpassing 6,000 points, influenced by trade negotiations and stable economic data [2]. 3. U.S.-China Trade Relations - Recent communications between U.S. and Chinese leaders indicate a potential thaw in relations, with discussions on tariffs and trade agreements, particularly concerning rare earth exports [8]. 4. Labor Market Stability - The U.S. labor market remains stable, with job openings rebounding and non-farm payrolls exceeding expectations. The unemployment rate is steady at 4.2%, indicating resilience despite tariff pressures [9][10][11]. 5. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations - Expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have decreased significantly, with projections now suggesting one to two cuts by the end of the year, down from earlier expectations of more substantial cuts [12]. 6. Market Response to Economic Data - Following the release of non-farm payroll data, U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply, particularly for 2-year bonds, while the stock market reacted positively due to the perceived stability of the economy [13][14]. 7. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The focus is on controlling inflation rather than government debt levels. The government can manage funding through monetary issuance, but inflation poses a greater risk to economic stability [15][16]. 8. Fiscal Policy Outlook - Future U.S. macroeconomic conditions are expected to be characterized by a combination of loose fiscal policy and supportive monetary policy, aimed at maintaining stable exchange rates and controlling inflation [21]. 9. Upcoming Economic Data - Key upcoming data includes CPI and PPI reports, with expectations for core CPI to rebound. Market reactions will depend on whether these figures meet or exceed expectations [22]. 10. Absence of Large-Scale Stimulus - There are no indications of large-scale economic stimulus measures from the U.S. government, suggesting that any economic pressures in the second half of the year will be localized and structural rather than widespread [23]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The potential for a significant shift in U.S.-China relations hinges on tariff negotiations, which could have broader implications for global trade dynamics [8]. - The labor market's stability is crucial for consumer purchasing power, which in turn supports economic growth despite external pressures [11]. - The relationship between the dollar's exchange rate and inflation control is emphasized, highlighting the importance of maintaining a stable dollar to mitigate inflationary pressures [19][20].