BERNSTEIN：亚洲科技硬件服务器ODM-OEM入门（2025 年）-参与者、布局与盈利能力

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the server ODM/OEM market, particularly in the context of AI servers and the competitive landscape among various players in the industry [1][10][26]. Market Projections - Global server shipments are projected to grow at a 3% CAGR from 2024 to 2026, with high-end GPU server shipments expected to increase by approximately 50% this year and high-teens growth next year [2][11]. - The global server market is anticipated to reach $350 billion by 2026, driven primarily by sustained demand for AI servers [9][13]. Competitive Landscape - Over 10 ODM/OEMs have established a strong presence in the AI server market, with 70% of high-end AI server demand coming from U.S. cloud service providers (CSPs) [3][28]. - Major players include Quanta, FII, Wistron, Wiwynn, Supermicro, and Celestica, with Quanta and FII expected to capture the largest market shares in AI servers by 2025 [39][40]. Financial Insights - The financial benefits of AI for ODMs are reflected more in profit expansion rather than revenue growth, with gross margins for AI servers projected to be significantly lower than traditional servers due to high GPU costs [4][84]. - Quanta's EPS estimates for 2025-26 are below consensus due to margin pressures, with total sales expected to grow at a ~40% CAGR through 2026 [5][68]. Business Models - ODMs operate under two primary business models: consignment and buy-sell. The buy-sell model tends to inflate revenue figures but compresses gross margins due to high GPU costs [83][84]. - Quanta employs a buy-sell model for its AI server business, leading to significant revenue growth but diluted margins, while FII uses a consignment model for some projects, yielding stronger margins [84][90]. Revenue and Margin Expectations - Quanta's AI server revenue is expected to leap from $5.5 billion in Q1 2025 to $8-11 billion per quarter for the remainder of the year, with AI revenue expected to exceed 80% of total server revenue [68][73]. - The gross margin for Quanta's AI servers is projected to be between 2.5-5%, compared to high-single-digit figures for traditional servers [4][84]. Emerging Opportunities - New demand may arise from projects like Stargate and OpenAI ASIC, potentially providing new revenue streams for companies like FII, Wiwynn, and Celestica in the latter half of 2026 [3][28]. - The ASIC server segment is also gaining traction, with companies like Wiwynn and Accton focusing on this area, particularly for major clients like Amazon and Meta [72][70]. Risks and Challenges - The impact of tariffs on new datacenter constructions involving raw materials from China remains uncertain, posing a potential risk to the supply chain [2][9]. - Competition in the GPU AI server market is expected to intensify with the return of players like ZT System and new entrants such as Pegatron and Compal [3][42]. Conclusion - The server ODM/OEM market is poised for significant growth driven by AI demand, but players must navigate challenges related to margins, competition, and geopolitical risks. The financial outlook for major companies like Quanta and FII reflects both opportunities and pressures in this evolving landscape [5][66][90].