2025-06-10 07:30Summary of the Conference Call on the Refractive Market Industry Overview - The refractive market, valued at $1.8 billion, includes equipment and consumables for surgical procedures treating myopia (nearsightedness) [2][13] - Key players in this market include Carl Zeiss, Alcon, Johnson & Johnson, and STAAR Surgical, with refractive surgery representing 20-25% of Zeiss' total revenues and a significant share of EBITA due to high margins [2][13] Market Dynamics - The market is expected to grow at a high mid-single-digit CAGR through 2029, driven by increasing myopia prevalence and a shift towards higher-priced procedures [3][21] - By 2050, approximately 50% of the global population is projected to have myopia, up from 35% today, with high myopia increasing from 5.5% to 10% [3][21] - China is the largest market, accounting for over half of global procedures, while the U.S. and Europe each represent around 15% [4][26] Competitive Landscape - The refractive market is characterized as an oligopoly, with the top four players controlling about 90% of the market [5][13] - Zeiss holds a monopoly on lenticule extraction procedures in the U.S. and China, while STAAR is dominant in phakic lenses [5][36] - Brand awareness and familiarity with procedures significantly influence patient choices, especially in China, where myopia is culturally viewed as a disease [4][31] Company-Specific Insights Carl Zeiss - Carl Zeiss Meditec is the leading player in the refractive market with an estimated market share of 32% [36] - The company’s refractive business constitutes about 22% of total revenues, with a gross margin of approximately 80% [2][35] - Recent challenges include a 30% cut in EBIT guidance due to a weak market in 2023/24, but the stock has rebounded by 30% from its January 2025 low [2][13] Alcon - Alcon generates about 3% of its revenues from refractive surgery, having entered the market through acquisitions [41][42] - The company has introduced advanced technologies like WaveLight Plus for personalized LASIK treatment [42] Johnson & Johnson - Johnson & Johnson's refractive business generates approximately $300 million, less than 1% of total revenues [44][45] - The company has developed the iLASIK technology suite and is expanding its offerings with the ELITA femtosecond laser [45] STAAR Surgical - STAAR focuses exclusively on implantable lenses for myopia treatment, with nearly 100% of its revenue derived from this segment [49][50] - The company has sold over three million ICLs worldwide, highlighting its strong market position [51] Bausch & Lomb - Bausch & Lomb's refractive sales are estimated to be less than 1% of total sales, with a focus on cataract and refractive surgery [54][55] Investment Implications - Carl Zeiss and Alcon are rated as Outperform with price targets of €74.00 and CHF 91.20, respectively [7][13] - Johnson & Johnson is rated as Market-Perform with a price target of $159.00 [7] Key Risks and Considerations - The emergence of local competitors in China poses a risk, although brand loyalty and awareness may mitigate this threat [4][26] - The U.S. market has seen sluggish growth due to negative perceptions around LASIK and a decline in procedure volumes [4][26] Conclusion - The refractive market is poised for growth driven by increasing myopia rates and a shift towards advanced surgical procedures, with key players like Carl Zeiss and Alcon leading the charge. However, challenges remain, particularly in the U.S. market and from local competition in China.