天风固收｜暖风再起，静待下行

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the bond market and its dynamics in 2024, particularly regarding deposit certificates and the movement of deposits due to seasonal pressures on bank liabilities [1][3] - The bond market has been influenced by two main themes: funding and liability shortages, and fundamental factors, especially the impact of overseas markets [2] Key Points and Arguments - Monetary Policy and Market Stability: The central bank's unexpected measures, such as a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation, have helped stabilize the funding environment, although ongoing observation of future measures is necessary [3][4] - Fiscal Policy Impact: The issuance of government bonds has accelerated, but the overall economic impact remains limited due to stricter self-auditing and economic conditions [5] - Short-term and Long-term Interest Rates: Short-term rates are stable, with deposit certificates maintaining rates below 1.7%. Long-term rates are expected to fluctuate based on fundamental expectations and market sentiment, with potential downward pressure if monetary policy is further eased [6][11] - Future Economic Indicators: Key factors to monitor include domestic economic recovery, upcoming political meetings, and the results of US-China negotiations, which will influence long-term interest rates [7][8] Additional Important Insights - Credit Market Dynamics: The credit bond market in 2025 shows unique characteristics, with short-term bonds sometimes outperforming deposit certificates, while the supply of credit bonds remains constrained [9] - Liquidity Premiums: There has been a rebound in credit spreads, with high-grade, pledgeable securities experiencing compressed liquidity premiums. The stable attitude of the central bank has contributed to a smoother market logic [10] - Investment Recommendations: There is a recommendation to focus on long-term interest rate compression opportunities and to consider slightly flawed but yield-potential securities in the three to four-year category [11][12] - Market Performance of Financial Products: The performance of financial products and public funds has been less favorable compared to last year, with limited space for interest rate declines leading to lower volatility in certain securities [12]