海光和曙光合并怎么看？

Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the merger between Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang. Zhongke Shuguang holds a 28% stake in Haiguang Information, which had a market value of approximately RMB 310 billion before suspension, while Shuguang's stake is valued at around RMB 90 billion. The market sentiment significantly impacts Shuguang's stock price, often viewed as a shadow stock of Haiguang Information [1][2][3]. Core Business Insights - Zhongke Shuguang's Business: - The company operates in IT equipment and software system integration, with projected revenues of RMB 12 billion and profits of RMB 1.6-2 billion for software integration, leading to an estimated valuation of RMB 356 billion including its stake in Haiguang [1][3]. - Haiguang Information's Core Business: - The main business segments are CPU and GPU (referred to as DCU). The CPU segment is expected to generate RMB 70 billion in revenue with a profit of RMB 20 billion, benefiting from the scarcity of X86 architecture, projecting a 30% growth in the coming years [1][5]. - The GPU segment is anticipated to achieve RMB 90 billion in revenue, with profits of RMB 40 billion. The new product, Deep Calculation 3, is expected to ship 50,000 units at a price of RMB 90,000 each, while the previous model, Deep Calculation 2, is expected to ship 100,000 units at RMB 45,000 each [1][6]. Merger Details - The merger involves Haiguang issuing shares to acquire Zhongke Shuguang, with a share exchange price of RMB 79 for Shuguang and RMB 143 for Haiguang, resulting in a dilution rate of approximately 7% for Haiguang's shareholders [1][7][8]. Shareholder Impact - Post-merger, Haiguang's shareholders will experience a 12%-15% increase in value despite a 7% dilution of their shares. Shuguang's shareholders benefit from a 30% premium on the acquisition price [8][9]. New Company Structure and Valuation - The merged entity, referred to as New Haiguang, will consist of three main business segments: server boards, CPU, and GPU. The GPU segment is expected to be the largest contributor, with a potential market valuation of RMB 2.4 trillion based on a 60x PE ratio [10][11]. - Future growth potential for New Haiguang is heavily reliant on the market's valuation of its GPU business, with projections indicating a possible market cap of RMB 4.2 trillion if a 75x PE ratio is applied [11]. Stock Price Predictions - The stock price is expected to rise by approximately 10% due to the merger's added value of RMB 350 billion to 400 billion and the positive market trends during the suspension period [13]. Changes in Shareholding Structure - After the merger, the largest shareholder of New Haiguang will be Chengdu Industrial Investment and related institutions, holding 16% of the shares, while the shareholding of the Institute of Computing Technology will decrease to 4.8% [12]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing insights into the merger's implications for both companies and their stakeholders.