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未知机构:脱水研报丨产能出清+海外景气先行,此板块多因素共振, 2025年下半年或开启反转上行;潮玩产业规模增长带动新消费需求,这2种上游材料长期受益-20250611
2025-06-11 01:55

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved 1. Dairy Industry: Focus on domestic raw milk production and pricing trends [1][3][11] 2. New Energy Vehicles (NEV): Emphasis on the European market and domestic companies like BYD and Leap Motor [14][22] 3. Color Masterbatch and Pigments: Related to the growing demand in the trendy toy industry [26][30] Core Insights and Arguments Dairy Industry 1. Raw Milk Price Recovery: Domestic raw milk prices are expected to reverse and rise in the second half of 2025 due to capacity reduction, production shrinkage, and decreased imports [1][11] 2. Current Industry Losses: The dairy industry has been in a state of deep losses since mid-2021, with raw milk prices declining for nearly four years [4][6] 3. Cattle Inventory Decline: The number of dairy cows in China is projected to drop to 13 million by early 2025, returning to 2019 levels [6][9] 4. Beef Price Impact: Rising beef prices are expected to accelerate the culling of dairy cows, which may positively influence raw milk prices [8][9] New Energy Vehicles 1. European Market Growth: The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Europe is expected to increase rapidly from 2025 to 2028, despite a temporary slowdown due to policy changes [14][21] 2. Domestic Companies' Opportunities: Companies like BYD and Leap Motor are well-positioned to benefit from the European market due to strong vehicle competitiveness and favorable tariff adjustments [14][22] 3. Sales Projections: The expected sales of new energy vehicles in Europe for 2025 is 3.465 million units, a 12.4% increase year-on-year [18][21] Color Masterbatch and Pigments 1. Market Growth: The global color masterbatch market is projected to grow from 94.686 billion yuan in 2023 to 129.834 billion yuan by 2029, with a CAGR of 5.21% [30] 2. Domestic Production: China is the largest producer of color masterbatch in Asia, with a fragmented market and many small-scale enterprises [31] 3. Key Players: Companies like Meilian New Materials and Baolidi are significant players in the domestic market, focusing on various types of color masterbatch production [30][31] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. Impact of EU Policies: The EU's carbon emission policies and the cancellation of fuel vehicle tax incentives are expected to drive the transition to electric vehicles [17][21] 2. Supply Chain Adjustments: Domestic parts manufacturers are likely to see growth in their European new energy business due to the acceleration of the new energy market [24][25] 3. Trendy Toy Industry: The expansion of the trendy toy industry is anticipated to drive long-term demand for color masterbatch and pigments [26][27]