“去美元”的共识与“资产荒”的现实——2025下半年展望

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the implications of the "de-dollarization" trend and its impact on the U.S. economy, stock markets, and global asset allocation strategies. Core Points and Arguments 1. De-dollarization vs. Dollar Weakness - The weakening of the dollar does not equate to de-dollarization; a moderate depreciation may benefit U.S. multinational companies due to their high overseas revenue exposure [2][5][21]. 2. Market Consensus on De-dollarization - The current market consensus leans towards de-dollarization, but the timeline and extent of this trend remain uncertain. The correlation between dollar weakness and de-dollarization should be carefully evaluated [2][5]. 3. U.S. vs. Hong Kong Stock Performance - Recently, the U.S. stock market has outperformed the Hong Kong market, with historical patterns showing that the relationship between U.S. stocks and the dollar is not linear [3][4]. 4. Impact of U.S. Economic Policies - U.S. fiscal policy is currently balanced, alleviating concerns about fiscal health. The extension of tax reform measures aims to encourage new investments [12][14]. 5. Credit Cycle Analysis - The relative strength of the U.S. and Chinese economies can be assessed through their credit cycles, with the U.S. showing signs of recovery while China remains in a state of stagnation [6][8]. 6. Inflation and Interest Rate Projections - Current U.S. inflation is expected to rise but will remain below 3.5%. The outcome of U.S.-China negotiations could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts [13][17]. 7. Market Liquidity and Asset Scarcity - The market is experiencing a paradox of abundant liquidity alongside asset scarcity, particularly in the Hong Kong market, which requires additional policy measures for significant improvement [39][41]. 8. Future of Technology Investments - The outlook for technology investments remains optimistic, with leading companies exceeding expectations, which may alleviate concerns about overcapacity in the tech sector [14][34]. 9. Tariff Policies and Economic Impact - Tariff policies are designed to support fiscal revenue for infrastructure projects, with current tariffs generating significant income to offset related expenditures [15][21]. 10. Investment Strategies in Current Market Conditions - Investors are advised against short-selling in the current environment due to potential market rebounds. A focus on dividend-paying assets is recommended to navigate volatility [25][44]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. Global De-dollarization Consensus - The global consensus on de-dollarization may lead to mispricing in certain markets, particularly in the U.S. stock market, which could rebound in the fourth quarter [53]. 2. Structural Opportunities in Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong market is witnessing a structural shift with a concentration of new economy companies, which may attract more investment despite the overall asset scarcity [50][51]. 3. Consumer Behavior Trends - Changes in consumer spending patterns, particularly among younger demographics, are influencing the new consumption market, presenting new investment opportunities [48][49]. 4. Challenges in Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector continues to face challenges, particularly in credit availability and rental yields, complicating recovery efforts [35][36]. 5. Potential for New Trade Agreements - In response to tariff uncertainties, there may be a shift towards new trade agreements with regions like Southeast Asia and the EU, as well as a focus on expanding overseas markets [32].