固收：对股债何时破局的再思考

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the Chinese stock market (A-shares) and the bond market, particularly focusing on the performance of the Shanghai Composite Index and the ten-year government bond yield [1][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments - Market Resilience: After the equal tariff event in April, the stock and bond markets showed reduced pullback amplitudes, indicating increased market resilience. The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a minor pullback of only 50-60 points when it touched above 3,400 points, followed by a rebound [1][3]. - Current Market Performance: Despite negative influences from U.S.-China relations and geopolitical tensions, the A-share market only saw a cumulative decline of about 0.5% over the week, while the ten-year government bond yield stabilized around 1.7% [1][4]. - Fund Performance: The median duration of monitored funds has increased, returning to historical highs, reflecting market participants' understanding of the current flattening yield curve trend. Institutions are favoring long-term bonds in a low-interest-rate environment [5][6]. - Future Predictions for Stock Market: It is anticipated that the Shanghai Composite Index will likely break through 3,400 points in the next one to two months, potentially reaching 3,450 points or higher. The ten-year government bond yield may also drop below 1.6%, possibly reaching 1.55% or even 1.50% [7]. - Conditions for Bond Market Breakthrough: For the bond market to effectively break below the 1.6% support level, three conditions must be met: a significant drop in A-shares, the central bank's re-entry into government bond purchases, and a 10 basis point rate cut by the central bank [8]. - Short-term A-share Outlook: There is a prevailing pessimistic sentiment regarding the short-term A-share outlook, with some analysts predicting a drop to 3,200 or even 3,100 points. However, the actual decline has been less than expected, indicating a bullish market environment unless significant negative factors arise [9]. - Upcoming Policy Releases: The market is expected to enter a period of intensive policy announcements, which may include financial stability measures and fiscal stimulus. These developments, despite potential limitations, are likely to bolster market confidence and support A-share stability or growth [10]. - External Environment Impact: The complex external environment, particularly U.S. policies, reflects China's strength in negotiations, which has positively influenced market confidence. A rebound in confidence indices is seen as beneficial for the stock market [11]. - Bond Market Outlook: The bond market is not expected to face significant negative factors in the short term, with bullish sentiment potentially leading to a breakthrough of the 1.6% support level. However, without further rate cuts from the central bank, significant increases in bond yields are not anticipated [12]. - Global Economic Impact of U.S. Tariff Policies: Changes in U.S. tariff policies, including the extension of exemption periods, are expected to have a positive impact on global and Chinese economies, potentially maintaining high-risk preferences and supporting stock market performance [13]. - Quarterly Market Predictions: It is projected that both stock and bond markets will experience breakthroughs in the upcoming quarter, with stocks likely leading the way. A new bullish opportunity is expected to emerge in late July, coinciding with anticipated rate cuts and government bond purchases [14].