刚果（金）禁令倒计时，钴市后续如何演绎？

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The cobalt market is significantly influenced by the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which accounts for approximately 76% of global cobalt supply, while Indonesia's share has risen to 11% [1][3] - In 2024, global refined cobalt supply is expected to increase to about 247,000 tons, with China contributing 78% of this supply [1][4] - The demand for refined cobalt is projected to be around 212,000 tons, primarily driven by 3C products, with China accounting for 69% of this demand [1][4] Core Insights and Arguments - The DRC's ban on cobalt exports is expected to shift the market from a surplus to a tight balance by 2025, with a projected supply drop of nearly 30,000 tons due to the ban [1][4][19] - China's refined cobalt production capacity is heavily reliant on imports, with a 53% year-on-year increase in imports expected in 2024, predominantly from the DRC [1][5] - The demand for cobalt in the battery sector (including electric vehicles and 3C products) is anticipated to grow at a rate of 9%, outpacing the supply growth of 5% [1][7] Supply Chain Dynamics - Cobalt raw materials are primarily sourced from copper-cobalt and nickel-cobalt ores, with a notable increase in cobalt production as a byproduct due to rising copper prices [2] - The DRC's ban has created a supply gap of approximately 73,000 tons, representing 23% of global supply, leading to a surge in cobalt prices [2][14] - China's electrolytic cobalt production is expected to rise from about 10,000 tons in 2024 to 48,000 tons, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 50% [1][9] Price and Profitability Trends - The average profit margin for electrolytic cobalt was 23% in Q1 2024, but is expected to drop to around 5% in Q1 2025 due to the DRC ban [17] - Cobalt prices have seen significant fluctuations, with sulfate prices rising from 27,500 CNY/ton to 50,000 CNY/ton, and cobalt oxide prices increasing from 111,000 CNY/ton to 215,500 CNY/ton [13][14] Challenges and Opportunities - China faces challenges due to reduced imports from the DRC, but its strong processing capabilities may help maintain its position in the cobalt market [8] - The global steel industry is projected to experience its first negative growth in 2025, with total supply expected to decrease by 12,000 tons [6] Future Projections - By 2025, China's electrolytic cobalt supply is expected to stabilize around 50,000 tons, despite the DRC's export ban [9] - The demand for high-temperature alloys, which account for about 45% of electrolytic cobalt consumption, is expected to grow at a rate of 10% to 15% due to advancements in aerospace and military technologies [10][31] Export Dynamics - China's electrolytic cobalt exports have shown a significant increase, with a 116% year-on-year growth in 2024, and are expected to continue rising in 2025 [11][18] - The export market is shifting, with a notable increase in exports to the Netherlands, Taiwan, and the United States [11] Conclusion - The DRC's export ban is a critical factor reshaping the global cobalt market, leading to increased prices and supply challenges, while China's processing capabilities and demand growth present both challenges and opportunities for stakeholders in the cobalt supply chain [12][19][23]