策略对话机械：高端装备 - 空间广阔，急起直追

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the high-end equipment sector within the context of China's self-sufficiency strategy, particularly in light of increasing restrictions from the U.S. and Western countries on Chinese technology [1][2][5] Core Insights and Arguments - Self-sufficiency as Investment Theme: The current geopolitical climate emphasizes the need for self-sufficiency, supported by China's 14th Five-Year Plan, which signals strong policy backing for domestic alternatives [1][2] - Investment Strategy: The strategy involves mapping macroeconomic and market correlations, focusing on policy-supported areas, critical sectors facing supply chain constraints, and fields with low domestic production rates but short technology advancement cycles [1][4] - Key Sectors for Investment: The report highlights several sub-sectors within the mechanical industry, including: - Semiconductor Equipment: Low domestic production rates, with photolithography machines near zero, inspection segments below 5%, and testing machines under 10% [12] - Scientific Instruments: Companies are encouraged to enhance market share through continuous R&D [12] - High-end Equipment: Low domestic production rates for five-axis machine tools (approximately 10%) and high-end CNC systems (in single digits) [12] Historical Context and Market Dynamics - Past Market Trends: The mechanical sector has historically been influenced by external pressures and domestic policy support. Key events include: - 2018-2020: U.S.-China trade tensions led to a surge in high-end equipment manufacturing, particularly in the semiconductor sector [7][8] - 2021: Further U.S. restrictions on the semiconductor industry prompted domestic companies to focus on mature process chip production [7] - 2022 Onwards: The addition of Chinese wafer manufacturers to the U.S. entity list had a limited initial impact, with companies performing well despite market concerns [7][8] Investment Opportunities and Recommendations - Focus on Low Domestic Production: The emphasis is on sectors with low domestic production rates that have the potential for significant growth due to policy support and market demand [2][10] - Encouragement for Investors: Investors are urged to explore specific stocks within the self-sufficiency strategy, particularly in the semiconductor and high-end equipment sectors, where valuations may not be high [11] Additional Important Points - Technological Progress and Policy Catalysts: The acceleration of technological advancements and supportive policies is expected to create substantial investment opportunities in the mechanical sector [11] - Long-term Viability: The sustainability of the self-sufficiency sector's growth is contingent on achieving higher domestic production rates and the ability of companies to convert orders into performance to manage valuations [9]