巴克莱：中国展望_ 贸易休战持续

FICC Research Economics 13 June 2025 China Outlook Trade truce continues Ongoing trade talks could reduce the tail risks of trade war escalation. We expect exports to slow visibly to close to 0% in H2 based on a likely payback from ~6% growth in H1. We expect 2025 full-year CPI inflation to stay at the post-GFC low of 0.2%. Next week, retail sales & FAI will be in focus. Despite absence of details, the ongoing trade talks could reduce tail risks Following the phone call between Trump and Xi last week, the U ...