巴克莱：中国展望_ 贸易休战持续

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Trade relations between the US and China, with a focus on exports and tariffs - Key Focus: Ongoing trade talks and their implications for export growth and inflation in China Core Insights and Arguments 1. Trade Truce and Talks: Ongoing trade discussions between the US and China are expected to reduce the risks of a trade war escalation, although specific details remain undisclosed [2][3] 2. Export Growth Projections: China's export growth is anticipated to slow significantly to nearly 0% in the second half of the year, following a robust growth of approximately 6% in the first half [1][12] 3. Tariff Implications: The US is likely to maintain a 30% additional tariff on China after the current 90-day pause ends on August 12, as indicated by US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick [3][6] 4. Rare Earths Export Controls: The rare earths issue is a priority for the US, with some progress reported in talks, but Chinese media did not confirm any changes to export controls [4] 5. Export Performance: In May, China's export growth slowed to 4.8% year-on-year from 8.1% in April, primarily due to a significant decline in exports to the US [5][20] 6. Trans-shipments via Vietnam: Vietnam is becoming a key conduit for Chinese exports to the US, with significant increases in both Chinese exports to Vietnam and Vietnamese exports to the US [9][10] 7. Container Shipping Activity: There has been a rebound in container shipping activity from China to the US, with a reported 18.2% increase in the number of container ships during the week of June 3-9 [11] 8. CPI and PPI Trends: China's CPI deflation continued in May, with a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, indicating persistent economic weakness [18][21] 9. Credit Growth: China's credit growth stabilized at 8.7% year-on-year in May, supported by government bond issuance, although private loan demand remains weak [26][29] Additional Important Insights 1. Retail Sales and Industrial Production: Retail sales are expected to show resilience, with a projected increase of 5% year-on-year, while industrial production is anticipated to rise by 5.8% [30] 2. Investment Sentiment: Weak investment sentiment is reflected in declining corporate long-term credit demand, indicating concerns over trade policies and the property market [29] 3. Inflation Forecast: The full-year CPI inflation forecast for 2025 has been lowered to 0.2%, reflecting ongoing deflationary pressures [23] This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of trade relations, export performance, and economic indicators in China.