麦肯锡：关税对半导体行业的影响

Summary of the Semiconductor Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry is the fourth-largest by market capitalization, following high tech, life sciences, and media and entertainment [3] - Semiconductors are essential for various sectors, including consumer electronics, automotive, and aerospace, and are critical for national security technologies [3] Key Points on Tariffs and Trade Measures - Recent geopolitical tensions have led to significant tariffs, with the U.S. imposing reciprocal tariffs exceeding 100% on imports from China [7] - China, producing about 95% of gallium and germanium, has announced export restrictions on these materials, increasing supply vulnerabilities for semiconductor companies [7] - The U.S. updated import tariffs for products from approximately 90 countries, maintaining a 10% tariff during a 90-day pause for implementation [10] - The China Semiconductor Industry Association has changed customs declarations, affecting integrated device manufacturers (IDMs) with production in the U.S. [10] Impact of Tariffs on the Semiconductor Value Chain - Companies face a dilemma of whether to absorb tariff costs or pass them on to consumers, with a focus on supply chain assessments to enhance resilience [9] - Tariffs on semiconductor components could raise costs for end devices, potentially leading to higher retail prices and reduced competitiveness [28] - Demand elasticity varies by product category; for example, budget phones may see reduced demand due to price increases, while data center servers may maintain demand despite higher costs [30][31] Strategies for Semiconductor Companies 1. Absorb or Pass Through Tariff Costs: Companies may raise retail prices or absorb costs to maintain market share, especially in industries with inelastic demand [34][35] 2. Reconfigure Supply Chain and Customer Portfolios: Companies could shift manufacturing to non-tariffed countries and redesign supply chains to optimize costs [38][39] 3. Augment Government Affairs Efforts: Semiconductor companies should engage with public and private sectors to educate stakeholders on the complexities of the semiconductor supply chain and collaborate on trade policies [43][44] Conclusion - The semiconductor industry is navigating a dynamic environment with evolving tariffs, requiring proactive planning and strategic adjustments to maintain competitiveness [46][47]