策略周观点：波动上升，后市如何看？

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance and outlook of the Hong Kong stock market, U.S. stock market, and the broader economic environment, particularly focusing on the implications of currency fluctuations and macroeconomic policies [1][2][4][5][6]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Hong Kong Stock Market Performance: - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance in the first half of the year, benefiting from capital inflows and reduced tariffs, but current valuations are considered high with a low ERP index [1][2][6]. - The core influencing factor for the Hong Kong market in the coming year is economic recovery, with the Hang Seng Index showing a high correlation with U.S. and Chinese manufacturing PMI [1][6][7]. 2. U.S. Economic Outlook: - The U.S. stock market is expected to face limited upward potential in the second half of 2025, with a forecast of soft landing for the economy, but potential stagnation in consumer demand and investment [4][6]. - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to initiate its first interest rate cut in September, but the extent of the cut is expected to be limited and more reactive than expansive [4][6]. 3. Currency and Interest Rate Impact: - The Hong Kong dollar's exchange rate and interest rates significantly influence the market, with a strong correlation between the Hong Kong dollar's appreciation and capital inflows [5][8][9]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority's currency peg mechanism plays a crucial role in maintaining liquidity and influencing interest rates, which in turn affects local asset prices [8][9][10]. 4. Investment Trends: - There is a growing demand for Chinese technology companies in global asset allocation, with foreign and domestic investors showing increased interest in the Hong Kong market [2][15][17]. - The anticipated inflow of approximately HKD 1 trillion from foreign and domestic investors is expected to enhance market liquidity and support stock prices [17]. 5. Sector-Specific Insights: - The healthcare sector, particularly pharmaceutical ETFs, has seen significant inflows, indicating potential short-term volatility but long-term opportunities [25][26]. - Defensive positioning is recommended for the upcoming quarter due to the high unlock pressure and potential market volatility [13][26]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The potential for a U-shaped recovery in Hong Kong's corporate earnings, with a projected growth rate of 7.2% for non-financial Chinese companies listed overseas, exceeding market expectations [7][6]. - The impact of geopolitical tensions on market sentiment and the necessity for cautious investment strategies in the face of potential volatility [22][23]. - The importance of the ongoing collaboration between Hong Kong and mainland China in attracting capital and reducing the AH premium, which is expected to narrow to a reasonable level [14][17]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market dynamics and future outlooks for the Hong Kong and U.S. stock markets.