A股短期还会继续调整吗？

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The A-share market is currently facing fundamental pressures, with May export growth unexpectedly declining, and the pace of policy implementation likely slowing down. It is expected that fundamental pressures may ease around mid to late July [1][2] - Structural pressures exist in the A-share mid-year report performance, particularly for high-earning expectations in new consumer sectors and thematic stocks, which may face valuation adjustment risks [1][3] - Ongoing geopolitical risks, such as the Iran nuclear conflict, are suppressing market sentiment and increasing uncertainty [1][4] Core Insights and Arguments - Market Performance: The A-share market is expected to continue its weak performance in the short term, with a potential for stabilization only by mid to late July if positive fundamental and policy factors emerge [2][3] - Key Factors for Weakness: 1. Fundamental Pressure: Export growth is anticipated to continue declining from June to August, increasing economic growth pressure [3] 2. Mid-Year Report Performance: While overall performance is stable, certain sectors may face significant structural pressures [3] 3. Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing geopolitical tensions are expected to further suppress market sentiment [4] Important Policies and Measures - Recent policies from the Lujiazui Forum have positively impacted market sentiment, including measures from the central bank related to foreign exchange and the introduction of more favorable conditions for technology innovation companies to list [6] - The introduction of new listing standards for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market is expected to facilitate the entry of more innovative companies into the capital market, although the immediate impact on the market's weak state is limited [8] Macro Environment Impact - The current macro environment is characterized by weak economic recovery and declining exports, which historically correlates with weak A-share performance [7][10] - The liquidity environment is neutral to slightly positive, but potential dollar rebounds and geopolitical tensions could impact global liquidity negatively [9] Industry Allocation Recommendations - A balanced allocation strategy is recommended, focusing on defensive sectors and high-potential technology sub-sectors, such as artificial intelligence and robotics, as well as undervalued blue-chip stocks in banking, construction, transportation, and electricity [11][13] - High-performing sectors historically during weak economic phases include high-growth industries and defensive sectors, such as low-valuation blue-chip stocks [12] Investment Opportunities - From a value investment perspective, sectors with low historical PE percentiles, such as non-bank financials, transportation, and non-ferrous metals, are highlighted as attractive for short-term allocation [14] - Short-term investment strategies should include a balanced mix of growth and blue-chip stocks, with a focus on undervalued sectors and those that have undergone significant adjustments [15]