美债如何牵引全球大类资产？

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the U.S. Treasury market and its impact on global asset classes, particularly in the context of changing perceptions regarding the U.S. dollar and its role in the global economy [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - Shift from U.S. Exception to De-dollarization: There has been a significant shift in market expectations from the U.S. exception narrative to a de-dollarization outlook, which has altered the correlation between stocks, bonds, and other asset classes. This has diminished the traditional safe-haven function of U.S. Treasuries [1][2]. - Decline in Correlation: The correlation between U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar has decreased, leading to a rebound in both U.S. Treasuries and equities, while the U.S. dollar index has declined [2]. - 10-Year Treasury Term Premium: The 10-year term premium for U.S. Treasuries has reached its highest point in nearly a decade, approximately 0.8%. The Federal Reserve's decisions regarding interest rate cuts will significantly influence Treasury yields and market demand [3]. - Dollar Index Depreciation: The U.S. dollar index has depreciated by about 7% this year, primarily due to the shift in market expectations and changes in global capital flows [4][5]. Important but Overlooked Content - Impact of Global Capital Flows: There has been a notable outflow of capital from the U.S. Treasury market, with funds returning to the Eurozone bond market, which has kept the 10-year Eurozone bond yields relatively stable (between 3.1% and 3.3%) despite volatility in other sovereign rates [6]. - Foreign Investment in Sovereign Securities: The rising interest of foreign investors in Eurozone, German, and Japanese sovereign securities indicates a shift in global capital allocation, which could have varying impacts on the yields of these securities [6].