稳定币产业跟踪：迎政策拐点，关注三大受益环节

Summary of Stablecoin Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The stablecoin industry is entering a rapid growth phase, with the U.S. and Hong Kong advancing legislation to regulate stablecoins, which is beneficial for healthy industry development [1][4] - Domestic policies will significantly impact future developments, with the potential for RMB stablecoins to expand into inter-enterprise payments, bank-to-business transactions, and international trade, aiding in the internationalization of the RMB [1][4] Core Insights and Arguments - Stablecoins offer significant advantages in cross-border payments, with settlement times under one hour compared to five business days for traditional bank transfers, and lower transaction costs, making them particularly suitable for countries with volatile commodity values [1][5] - The two largest USD stablecoins are USDT, issued by Tether with a supply of approximately $150 billion, and USDC, issued by Circle with a supply of around $60 billion, with over 80% and 92% of their reserves in U.S. Treasury securities, respectively [1][6] - The business model of stablecoin issuers primarily relies on earning interest from reserve assets, with Circle projected to earn $1.66 billion in interest income in 2024, accounting for 99% of its total revenue [1][8][9] Key Players and Market Dynamics - Key segments in the stablecoin industry include licensed issuers, virtual asset distributors, and cryptocurrency exchanges, with Hong Kong serving as a significant testing ground for stablecoin initiatives [3][10] - Traditional financial institutions are exploring new stablecoin applications, with companies like Walmart, Amazon, and JPMorgan collaborating on stablecoin issuance [3][12] - Notable companies in the secondary market include Yuanbi Technology, which is linked to the USDC project, and JD.com, which has shown market performance [11] Future Directions and Regulatory Landscape - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority is expected to release stablecoin issuance guidelines and open license applications by Q3 2025, with regulations likely to take effect in Q4 2025 [3][13] - Ant Group is actively exploring Real World Assets (RWA) and has partnered with various companies to advance asset digitization, which could revitalize China's computing power industry [14] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include policy changes, particularly with upcoming regulations expected in Q3 2023, which may lead to volatility in stablecoin-related assets during the transitional period [19] - Technological changes related to distributed ledgers and cryptocurrencies may also pose risks, along with the pace of implementation not meeting expectations [19] Investment Opportunities - Three key areas to focus on for investment include issuers with scarce license advantages, infrastructure service providers, and the cross-border payment ecosystem [18]