二次元与潮玩的现状与投资机会 - 消费动态

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The current state of the collectible toy (潮玩) and anime (二次元) markets shows continued growth momentum in the first half of 2025, with a significant increase in store openings in 2024, indicating strong sales in 2023 [1][3] - The collectible toy market is characterized by high absolute store numbers, while the anime market exhibits faster growth rates, reflecting consumer demand for IP products and highly standardized items [1][4] Core Insights and Arguments - Collectible Toy Categories: The collectible toy market is divided into card games, blind boxes, and building toys. Blind boxes rely on direct sales to control pricing and prevent market dilution, while card games and building toys are sold through distributors or large KA channels [1][5] - Anime Brand Expansion: Anime brands are rapidly expanding through collective store formats in shopping centers, with grocery collective store sales expected to grow by 10%-15% year-on-year in 2024. The use of major KOL channels has accelerated sales growth, although the sustainability of IP and the maturity of the supply chain still require development [1][6] - Shopping Center Collaboration: Shopping centers collaborate with collectible toy brands through fixed rent, a combination of fixed rent and sales commission, or direct high commission. Leading brands like Pop Mart typically use a guaranteed minimum plus commission model, with a rental yield ratio of about 11%, lower than the retail sector average [1][7] - Sales Performance: The collectible toy sector has shown remarkable performance, with significant month-on-month sales increases in April and May 2025, where benchmark stores exceeded 1 million yuan in sales, contributing significantly to shopping center revenues [1][8] Additional Important Insights - Market Dynamics: Despite an overall negative growth in shopping center formats since 2019, the collectible toy and anime sectors have maintained a long-term growth trend in store openings [2] - Anime Market Characteristics: The anime market is still developing, with a relatively weak brand concentration. Leading brands achieve monthly sales of approximately 40-50 thousand yuan, while non-leading brands only reach 10-20 thousand yuan [3][17] - Consumer Preferences: Young consumers view purchases in the collectible toy and anime sectors as social currency, indicating that marketing strategies should focus on social engagement to attract foot traffic [14] - Geographic Trends: Major cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Chengdu are leading in the anime market, with a high concentration of young consumers who are receptive to these cultural trends [16][23] Future Outlook - Growth Potential: The collectible toy sector is expected to maintain its popularity, with a focus on attracting more brands into shopping centers. The sales growth rate for collectible toys and anime in shopping centers is projected to be between 15%-30%, significantly higher than the overall growth rate of 5% [9][28] - Challenges for Anime Brands: The anime sector still faces challenges in achieving the same level of brand strength and market maturity as collectible toys, requiring further cultivation of IP sustainability and supply chain development [10][18][30] - Consumer Behavior Trends: The preference for Japanese IP products remains strong, with IP being a crucial factor in driving sales and market growth [24] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, highlighting the dynamics, performance, and future outlook of the collectible toy and anime markets.