天风固收 超长信用还有价值吗？

Summary of Conference Call on Long-term Credit Bonds Industry Overview - The focus is on the long-term credit bond market, particularly bonds with maturities of 7 to 10 years, as well as shorter-term bonds ranging from one to five years [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Yield Spread Compression: - One-year credit bond yield spreads have limited compression potential, making it difficult to enhance yields [1][2]. - Two to three-year bonds have similar yield spreads to one-year bonds, with further compression being challenging [2][3]. - Four to five-year bonds still have some compression potential, especially for lower-rated varieties, despite significant compression since early June [1][2]. 2. Performance of Long-term Credit Bonds: - Long-term credit bonds (7-10 years) have not seen significant yield spread compression this year, showing high coupon rates and active trading [1][2]. - The focus has shifted from industrial long-term credit bonds to urban investment bonds due to the former being fully traded [2][3]. 3. Market Supply and Trading Volume: - As of last week, the outstanding amount of long-term credit bonds (over 5 years) is approximately 2 trillion yuan, with 7-10 year bonds accounting for 1.2 to 1.3 trillion yuan [3][4]. - Trading volume for long-term bonds has significantly increased since mid-March 2025, matching last year's peak, although turnover rates have not reached last year's levels due to increased supply [8]. 4. Investment Strategy Recommendations: - Short-term bonds should be cautiously allocated due to low yield spreads and limited upside [5][6]. - Mid-term bonds (two to three years) can be cautiously selected, but further compression is difficult [5][6]. - Long-term bonds (four to five years) are recommended for focus due to their potential for yield compression and attractive coupon rates [5][6]. 5. Risk Assessment: - Current low coupon rates increase the pressure on accounts during adjustments, leading to a risk-reward imbalance [7]. - Long-term bonds face capital loss risks due to liquidity premiums, necessitating careful evaluation of participation value [6][11]. 6. Market Dynamics: - The distribution of long-term bond issuers has become more diversified, with central enterprises accounting for 30-40% of transactions last year, while urban investment bonds have decreased to less than 10% this year [9][10]. - Investors are more inclined to choose other issuers over urban investment bonds due to lower cost-effectiveness [10]. 7. Potential for Future Participation: - There remains a 30-50 basis point space for high-grade ten-year bonds, but investor participation has become more cautious, favoring local bonds over long-term credit bonds [11][12]. 8. Short-term Holding Risks: - Holding ten-year long-term bonds can withstand minor adjustments (approximately 3 basis points for one month, 5 basis points for two months), but the risk-reward ratio is unfavorable due to limited yield spread compression [12]. 9. Strategies for Mid and Long-term Bonds: - Short-term bonds are suitable for base allocations, while mid to long-term bonds should focus on liquid four to five-year varieties and issuers with potential for yield enhancement [13]. Additional Important Insights - The overall market environment and macroeconomic trends should be closely monitored to optimize investment strategies and achieve stable growth [6].