2025-06-24 15:30Summary of Cobalt Industry Report Industry Overview - The cobalt market is expected to face a shortage of 30,000 to 40,000 tons in 2025 due to the export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and limited new supply from Indonesia [2][3] - The global cobalt resources are primarily concentrated in DRC (56% of reserves), Australia (16%), and Indonesia (6%), with China having a high dependency on imports [2][7] Key Points Supply and Demand Dynamics - The DRC government announced a four-month ban on cobalt raw material exports on February 22, 2025, which was extended for another three months on June 21, 2025. This is expected to reduce the DRC's annual production of 220,000 tons by over 100,000 tons [3] - Despite a previous surplus of cobalt, the current market is expected to see a shortage due to the DRC's export restrictions and limited new supply from Indonesia [3][4] - The cobalt demand is primarily driven by the lithium battery sector, with 43% of consumption in power batteries and 30% in consumer electronics [4][15] Price Forecast - Short-term projections indicate cobalt prices could rise to around 300,000 yuan/ton due to inventory depletion and upstream reluctance to sell [5] - The long-term price expectation is between 250,000 to 300,000 yuan/ton, supported by DRC government policies and potential quota systems [5] Major Players - Luoyang Molybdenum Co. (LMO) is projected to become the largest cobalt supplier globally, with production expected to reach 114,200 tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of over 100% [2][9] - Huayou Cobalt is also highlighted as a key player with significant production capacity in both DRC and Indonesia, potentially benefiting from price increases [6][18] Emerging Supply Sources - Indonesia is expected to become a significant new supply source, with wet nickel production capacity rapidly increasing, projected to yield 40,000 to 50,000 tons of cobalt by 2025 [10][13] Market Challenges - The domestic cobalt industry in China is facing a decline in capacity utilization due to rising raw material prices leading to cost imbalances [14] - The shift in import forms from refined cobalt to crude hydroxide forms is noted, with potential impacts on the domestic market starting from July 2025 due to DRC's export restrictions [4][12] Future Demand Trends - The demand for cobalt in the lithium battery sector is expected to grow, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10% anticipated over the next few years [16][17] - The industrial application of cobalt is also projected to see stable growth, particularly in hard alloys and high-temperature alloys [17] Conclusion - The cobalt market is poised for significant changes due to geopolitical factors, supply chain dynamics, and evolving demand patterns, with key players like LMO and Huayou Cobalt positioned to benefit from these trends.