建银国际：2025年下半年全球市场展望：沉浮之间

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global economic outlook for 2025, highlighting a complex and fragile environment with high uncertainty and frequent shocks. The global market is expected to oscillate between policy reversals and recession concerns [3][5]. Core Economic Insights - United States: Core growth momentum is gradually weakening, with negative policy impacts becoming more pronounced. The economy recorded a negative GDP growth of -0.3% in Q1, primarily due to tariff impacts and reduced consumer spending [3][18][19]. - Europe: Limited macroeconomic improvement is noted, with Germany's fiscal deficit temporarily boosting confidence, but consumer investment remains low. The European Central Bank is expected to have 1-2 rate cuts in the latter half of 2025 [4]. - Japan: High inflation continues to suppress economic recovery, with wage growth offset by inflationary pressures. The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates again before the end of 2025 [4]. Asset Allocation Recommendations - U.S. Stocks: The S&P 500 may test previous highs around 6150, but volatility is expected, particularly influenced by inflation and fiscal risks [5]. - U.S. Bonds: Long-term yields are anticipated to remain high, fluctuating between 4.2%-4.7%, with 4.5% acting as a critical support and resistance level [5]. - Dollar: The DXY index is expected to soften to around 95 in the latter half of 2025 [5]. - Japanese Market: The Nikkei 225 index is projected to fluctuate between 36,000-40,000 points [5]. - Precious Metals: Continued bullish outlook on gold, with recommendations to buy on dips [5]. Consumer and Employment Trends - Consumer Spending: There is a slowdown in consumer spending driven by wage growth deceleration and diminishing pre-consumption effects. Leading indicators are nearing levels seen during the subprime mortgage crisis [6][22]. - Inflation Pressures: Rising upstream costs are expected to translate into retail price increases, with CPI potentially returning to 3% by mid-year [6][28]. - Employment Market: Job cuts in mid-to-high-end positions are increasing, with a decline in support for service and government employment. The unemployment rate is projected to rise but remain below historical averages [32][34][35]. Fiscal and Monetary Policy Insights - Fiscal Deficit Risks: The "Great Beautiful" policy under the Trump administration is expected to expand the deficit, pushing long-term bond yields higher [6]. - Federal Reserve Policy: The Fed is expected to maintain a cautious stance, with potential rate cuts in late 2025. The market anticipates about 3 rate cuts in the latter half of 2025 to early 2026 [41][45]. - Tariff Impacts: Tariffs are raising import costs, leading to retail price adjustments. The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is expected to elevate inflation expectations [29][31]. Additional Considerations - Long-term Economic Outlook: The overall economic trajectory suggests a balance of risks and opportunities, necessitating careful navigation of frequent shocks and ongoing volatility [5]. - Tax Policy Changes: The recent tax reforms favoring the wealthy and corporations may exacerbate income inequality and fiscal pressures, with significant implications for low-income households and social spending [52]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and future expectations.