Summary of the Global Semiconductor Capital Equipment Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE) market in China, with a specific update on May 2025 import data indicating resilience despite a year-to-date (YTD) year-over-year (YoY) decline of 2% [2][22]. Key Insights - May 2025 WFE Imports: Total imports reached USD 2,829 million, reflecting a month-over-month (MoM) decline of 16% and a YoY decline of 1%. The YTD average import is USD 2,773 million, slightly lower than the previous year's average of USD 3,159 million [2][22]. - Import Segmentation: The largest segments for imports are Deposition (26%), Dry Etch (21%), and Lithography (12%). Japan remains the largest trading partner, accounting for 25% of imports, while Guangdong and Shanghai are the biggest domestic buyers, with shares of 37% and 22%, respectively [3][22]. Company-Specific Insights - Tokyo Electron (TEL): Expected to see a 12% QoQ increase in China revenue, with a projected -10% YoY decline for FY26/3. China is anticipated to contribute 42% of total revenues [4][62][63]. - Kokusai: Forecasted to experience a -32% QoQ decline in China revenue, with an expected contribution of 37% to total revenues [4][66][70]. - Screen: Anticipated to decline by -27% QoQ in China revenue, with a contribution of 30% to total revenues, below the company's guidance of 45% [5][73][79]. - Advantest: Expected to see a significant decline of -60% QoQ in China revenue, with exposure dropping to 8% from 19% in the previous quarter [5][82]. Market Dynamics - The lithography segment is experiencing a sharp decline, with imports expected to drop to EUR 0.79 billion in Q2, down 66% YoY and 49% sequentially. This is attributed to record low import levels in April and May [9]. - The overall WFE market in China is becoming increasingly important, with global vendors capturing approximately 84% of the market share in 2024 [18]. Investment Implications - NAURA: Rated as Outperform with a target price of CNY 550.00, benefiting from a broad product portfolio and diverse client base [11]. - AMEC: Also rated Outperform with a target price of CNY 300.00, recognized for its technology and market position [12]. - Piotech: Rated Outperform with a target price of CNY 280.00, noted for its innovation in advanced packaging [13]. - AMAT: Positive outlook with a target price of $210.00, driven by secular WFE growth and capital return [16]. - ASML: Rated Market-Perform with a target price of EUR 700.00, reflecting a cautious stance on growth relative to consensus [17]. Additional Observations - The import data indicates a shift in sourcing, with increased imports from Singapore and Malaysia as U.S. direct imports decline [34][40]. - The market for cleaning equipment remains competitive, with potential upside from panel-level packaging [15]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the current state of the WFE market in China, company-specific forecasts, and broader market dynamics.
BERNSTEIN:中国半导体设备进口追踪(2025 年 5 月)_进口韧性显现,年初至今同比 - 2%,全年预测存在上行风险