海外“钱”瞻：中期展望：复苏交易再起？

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the global economic outlook, particularly focusing on trade relations, fiscal policies, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy for the second half of 2025 [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - Market Expectations: There is an expectation that trade relations will ease in the second half of 2025, leading to a recovery in risk assets and an overall improvement in the global economic landscape [1][4]. - Trade War Dynamics: The intervention of the judiciary is seen as a turning point, signaling the end of the intense phase of the trade war, which may accelerate trade negotiations between the Trump administration and other countries [4][5]. - Key Contradictions: The market will face three main contradictions: the outlook on tariffs, the lagging impact of tariffs on the economy, and interpretations of the Federal Reserve and fiscal policies [2][14]. - Federal Reserve Actions: The Federal Reserve is expected to adopt a more accommodative stance, including potential interest rate cuts and halting quantitative tightening, to support the economy [10][14]. Important but Overlooked Content - Tariff Impact: Current tariff rates are significantly higher than those in 2018-2019, raising concerns about their negative impact on the economy, which may manifest more clearly in the third quarter of 2025 [7][8]. - Fiscal Concerns: While there are ongoing worries about the U.S. fiscal deficit, the actual situation may not be as dire as anticipated, particularly as some deficit components are due to previous tax cuts rather than new spending [11][12]. - Asset Allocation Recommendations: It is suggested to overweight equities and commodities in the second half of 2025, as the market is likely to shift towards expectations of economic recovery [15]. Additional Insights - Gold Performance: The outlook for gold is less favorable, with expectations of a 10% to 20% pullback due to high current prices and reduced geopolitical tensions [16][17]. - Currency Trends: In the context of a global economic recovery, the U.S. dollar is expected to weaken, while the Chinese yuan may remain stable or appreciate, benefiting Chinese assets [18].