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杰瑞股份20260626
Jereh GroupJereh Group(SZ:002353)2025-06-26 15:51

Summary of Jerry Corporation Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Jerry Corporation - Industry: Oil and Gas Equipment and Services Key Points and Arguments 1. Rapid Growth of Overseas Orders: Jerry Corporation's overseas orders are expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 50% from 2021 to 2024, with 80% of these orders coming from regions along the "Belt and Road" initiative. The Middle East and Central Asia are the fastest-growing areas [2][4][6]. 2. Shift in Order Structure: The company is experiencing a significant transformation in its order structure, with natural gas-related business increasing its share. From 2022 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of overseas natural gas-related orders is projected to exceed 80%, with natural gas compression equipment growing at 150% [2][5]. 3. Domestic Orders: Domestic orders account for about 50% of total orders, closely tied to the capital expenditures of the "Big Three" oil companies. These orders are less affected by oil price fluctuations [2][5]. 4. Competitive Advantages in the Middle East: Jerry Corporation has advantages in the Middle East oil and gas service market, including shorter project delivery cycles, strong customization capabilities, and cost advantages, allowing it to stand out against Western competitors [2][10]. 5. Response to North American Tariff Issues: To mitigate tariff risks in the North American market, the company has implemented measures such as early shipments, expanding local production capacity, and utilizing its Dubai factory for transshipment [2][11]. 6. Revenue Projections: The company anticipates revenues of 30 to 50 billion RMB over the next 3-5 years, with the power generation business expected to account for about 25% of total revenue [2][14]. 7. Delivery Cycle Challenges: The delivery cycle has been extended due to capacity constraints in natural gas compressors and EPC business, with expected growth rates of 15%-20% in 2025 and 30% in 2026 [3][15][20]. 8. Order Growth in Middle East and Central Asia: The sustainability of order growth in these regions is influenced by OPEC's production cut policies, which have been less effective than intended, allowing for continued investment in oil and gas extraction [6][7][8]. 9. Natural Gas Investment Drivers: The growth in natural gas investments in the Middle East is driven by resource endowment, economic advantages of gas over oil, and geopolitical factors, particularly following the Russia-Ukraine conflict [9]. 10. Future Capacity Expansion: Jerry Corporation's natural gas capacity is currently 4 billion RMB, with plans to triple this capacity and add a new factory in the Middle East, increasing total capacity to 6 billion RMB [18]. 11. Impact of Capacity Constraints: Current capacity limitations have extended delivery times from one year to up to 15-24 months [19]. 12. Market Valuation Expectations: Based on a profit forecast of 4 billion RMB in 2026, the company’s conservative market valuation could reach 40 billion RMB, with potential increases in valuation multiples due to improved growth recognition [21][22]. Other Important Insights - Dividend Policy: The company has been increasing its dividend payout ratio, which is expected to enhance its valuation floor over the coming years [22][23]. - North American Market Challenges: The expansion of electric fracturing equipment in North America has faced challenges due to market demand being primarily for equipment replacement and sensitivity to oil prices [12][13].