图说中国宏观专题：5月结构分化

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The macroeconomic data for May 2025 in China shows structural differentiation, with consumption outperforming expectations while investment and exports weaken, leading to a steady slowdown in industrial production [2][11] - The automotive industry remains resilient due to improved consumer spending, despite a decline in retail sales growth [4][6] Core Insights and Arguments Industrial Production - In May 2025, the industrial added value growth rate was 5.8%, a slight decline from the previous month, influenced by a slowdown in exports [3] - Labor-intensive manufacturing saw a decrease in growth rate by 0.2 percentage points to 6.9% [3] - Traditional infrastructure and real estate-related sectors, such as black metals and non-metallic mineral products, experienced weakened production [3] Consumption Data - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 6.4% year-on-year in May, exceeding market expectations and marking a new high for the year [5] - Categories such as home appliances and communication equipment showed significant growth, reflecting the release of policy dividends [5] - The automotive retail growth rate was only 1.1%, indicating a price contraction despite a sales growth of 11.13% [6] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment growth continued to decline to 3.7%, with manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investments all weakening [7] - Real estate investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 11.1%, significantly dragging down overall investment performance [7] Real Estate Market - The real estate market showed slight recovery on the supply side, but demand remained weak, with both sales area and sales revenue declining year-on-year [8] - The price index for second-hand residential properties continued to show negative growth, although the rate of decline has narrowed [8] Price Levels and Inflation Risks - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) continued to decline, indicating a widening gap between the two [9] - The PPI for production materials saw an expanded decline, raising concerns about deflation risks and the impact of price levels on corporate profitability [9] Other Important Insights - The financial data indicates that while social financing growth remains resilient, credit expansion has not significantly started [12] - Government fiscal data shows a decline in both revenue and expenditure growth, with a notable increase in the fiscal deficit scale, reaching a six-year high [14][15] - The government’s reliance on non-tax revenue has decreased, with non-tax revenue turning negative for the first time since 2024 [14] - The employment market showed marginal improvement, with the urban unemployment rate slightly decreasing to 5.0% [9] Conclusion - The macroeconomic landscape in May 2025 reflects a complex interplay of strong consumer demand against a backdrop of weakening investment and export performance, with significant implications for future economic policy and investment strategies [17]