消费策略&组合配置：新消费创造成长主线，结构性牛市曙光已现

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - Consumer Sector: The consumer sector in China is currently facing challenges due to a lack of growth engines, but there are signs of recovery driven by export growth and improvements in domestic economic activities. [1][4] - Retail Sector: The retail sector is experiencing supply surplus and insufficient demand, necessitating a focus on new demand opportunities, including traditional channel transformations and the rise of instant retail. [1][7] Core Insights and Arguments - Economic Recovery: The recovery of exports is expected to positively impact domestic economic activities and consumption, with a notable rebound in personal income tax indicating a gradual recovery in residents' income. [1][4] - Investment Strategy: In July, the investment strategy should avoid liquidity-driven assets and focus on service consumption and high-turnover goods that are less affected by liquidity pressures. [1][4] - New Consumption Trends: New consumption is identified as a key growth driver for the next two to three years, emphasizing the creation of new consumption scenarios and business models, particularly in high-turnover and low-leverage service consumption. [1][5][6] Specific Areas of Focus - Service Consumption: Investment opportunities in the consumer sector are concentrated in emotional value consumption (e.g., trendy toys, pets) and functional value consumption (e.g., AI-related products). [6] - Cross-Border Trade: Companies engaged in cross-border trade should focus on supply chain management, brand premium capabilities, and channel premium capabilities due to tightening trade policies. [8] - E-commerce Performance: The 2025 618 e-commerce promotion met expectations, with Douyin's growth exceeding forecasts, highlighting a trend of collaboration across platforms. Instant retail channels performed exceptionally well during this event. [9][10] Additional Important Insights - Tobacco Industry: The tobacco industry is showing a stable upward trend, with new products like Glohilo from British American Tobacco expected to perform well in Japan. [3][11][12] - Home Appliances: The home appliance sector is expected to see double-digit growth driven by national policy support, with leading companies using pricing strategies to enhance market share. [3][22] - Household Goods: The household goods sector is stabilizing at the bottom, with a focus on companies that can demonstrate alpha capabilities. [3][13] - Competition in Cleaning Appliances: The competition in the cleaning appliance sector is easing, benefiting companies like Roborock and Ecovacs, with expectations of rising industry profit margins. [3][20] Conclusion The conference call highlighted the complexities and opportunities within various sectors of the Chinese economy, particularly in consumer and retail markets. The focus on new consumption trends, service-oriented products, and strategic adjustments in response to economic conditions will be crucial for navigating the current landscape.