探讨国补政策展望以及家电618表现

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the home appliance industry, particularly focusing on the impact of national subsidy policies and sales performance during the 618 shopping festival in 2025 [1][13]. Key Points and Arguments 1. National Subsidy Policy Outlook: - The home appliance subsidy may end early in 2025, with funds expected to be exhausted by Q4, especially in active eastern markets, while regions like Gansu and Qinghai may be less affected [1][3]. - The continuity of the subsidy in 2026 is uncertain and will depend on the 2025 market performance; if growth is flat or minimal, the likelihood of extension decreases [1][4]. - Historical data suggests that even if the subsidy is canceled, the market size could remain around 850 billion yuan, with a potential decline of 7-8% [1][6]. 2. Sales Performance: - Online sales during the 2025 618 event grew by 16.6% year-on-year, while offline sales increased by 17.8%. However, the average price increase online was significantly lower than in 2024, indicating a shift in demand dynamics [1][13][14]. - Specific categories showed varied performance: cleaning appliances saw a 26% increase, while refrigerators experienced a 4.1% decline in sales [1][16]. 3. Market Dynamics: - The home appliance industry is expected to face constraints on "involution" (excessive competition), with potential policy guidance anticipated in the latter half of 2025 [1][7]. - Local governments have flexibility in reallocating subsidy funds, which may favor regions with higher efficiency in fund usage [1][8]. 4. Product Category Insights: - Cleaning appliances and air conditioners are highlighted as key areas for investment due to their strong performance and growth potential [2][20]. - The kitchen appliance market is undergoing a renewal phase in first and second-tier cities, while third and fourth-tier markets remain weaker [21]. 5. Price Trends: - Average prices for various appliance categories showed mixed trends during the 2025 618 event, with cleaning appliances and air conditioners experiencing price declines, while washing machines saw a slight increase [24][25]. Additional Important Content - The potential for the government to issue special bonds to extend subsidies is low, as decisions are typically made with a longer-term perspective [1][8]. - The impact of the subsidy policy on major brands like Haier and Midea is significant, as they have effectively leveraged the subsidy framework to enhance market penetration [22][23]. - The exit of the subsidy policy may benefit head brands in the kitchen appliance sector, allowing them to regain competitiveness in lower-tier markets [23]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the home appliance industry's current state and future outlook.