AI电子布专家交流

Summary of Conference Call on AI Electronic Fabric Industry Industry Overview - The demand for second-generation glass fabric is expected to experience explosive growth by 2026, with monthly demand potentially doubling from the current 200,000 meters to over 1 million meters, driven primarily by next-generation AI applications requiring specifications 1,037 and 1,086 [1][2][3] - The first-generation glass fabric market is stable, with TSMC holding a 60%-70% market share, purchasing approximately 4-5 million meters monthly, and prices stabilizing between RMB 30 to 50 per meter this year [1][3][7] Key Insights and Arguments - The price of second-generation glass fabric is currently 1.5 to 2 times that of the first generation, ranging from RMB 50 to 80 per meter, with a price drop of approximately 30% to 50% this year due to increased production and procurement [1][9] - The third-generation fabric (Q fabric), made from pure quartz, has superior electrical properties but is costly and difficult to process, currently priced between RMB 200 to 300 per meter, with expectations that its price will be at least double that of second-generation fabric upon mass production [1][13] - The technology choices in the AI industry are expected to become clearer around April-May 2026, with decisions from NV, Google, and Meta likely to have a significant impact on the industry [1][14] Market Dynamics - The first-generation fabric's demand is stable, projected to increase to 700,000-800,000 meters per month by year-end, but may decline in the second half of next year if Google opts for second-generation fabric for its next product [3][30][31] - The second-generation fabric's monthly demand is currently around 200,000 meters, but could potentially double to 400,000-500,000 meters if major companies like Amazon and Google choose it for their next-generation products [30][31] - Recent increases in PCB terminal demand have been noted, with AWS expecting demand to double by year-end, and NV's GB300 production delayed to Q4 [29] Pricing Trends - The first-generation fabric's price peaked last year due to supply shortages but has stabilized this year, with an increase in suppliers from 2-3 to 6-7 [7][30] - The second-generation fabric's price has adjusted from a previous 2x relationship to 1.5-1.7x compared to the first generation, indicating a market correction [9][38] Supply Chain and Production Insights - The supply situation for first-generation fabric is dominated by TSMC, with significant contributions from Panasonic and Doosan, while the second-generation fabric is primarily supplied by TSMC, with smaller contributions from competitors [3][19] - The introduction of second-generation fabric is expected to stabilize as demand increases, with suppliers gradually achieving stable production rates [23][24] - The certification process for products significantly impacts the supply chain, with efforts made to streamline testing for low DK glass fabric to address supply shortages [25][26] Future Outlook - The market for low expansion coefficient fabric (low CTE) is anticipated to grow, particularly in applications requiring high reliability, such as large-size chips in AI [41][42] - The price of low CTE fabric is currently around RMB 120 to 130, but may need to adjust downward to remain competitive as production scales up [44] Additional Considerations - The competitive landscape for third-generation fabric is evolving, with many non-industry players entering the market, raising concerns about their reliability and experience [27] - The overall sentiment in the electronic fabric market remains optimistic, with expectations of continued growth driven by advancements in AI and related technologies [36]