美国流动性宽松预期强化，看多基本金属

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the basic metals industry, particularly copper and aluminum, influenced by macroeconomic factors in the U.S. and liquidity expectations for the second half of 2025 [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - U.S. Economic Events: July 2025 is critical with key events such as the vote on the "Great America Act" on July 4, the expiration of EU tariff exemptions on July 9, and a potential Fed interest rate cut decision around July 30. These events will significantly impact commodity markets and liquidity expectations for the latter half of the year [2][4]. - Fed's Rate Cut Signals: Fed officials, including Chairman Powell, have indicated that positive changes in tariffs could trigger conditions for a rate cut, which is expected to support demand for basic metals and enhance anti-inflation capabilities [1][4]. - Copper Market Dynamics: The price difference between COMEX and LME copper has widened to $1,400/ton with a premium rate of 14.2%. This is driven by expectations of a potential copper tariff investigation and LME's restrictions on long positions, leading to a more optimistic COMEX market [5][6]. - Domestic Copper Market: The domestic copper market is experiencing weak forward prices, shifting from a Contango to a Backwardation structure, which may lead to cautious investor sentiment towards equity investments [6]. - Aluminum Market Conditions: The aluminum market is characterized by low inventory levels across social, exchange, and bonded zone stocks. Despite a slight accumulation during the off-season, demand remains strong, supporting stable aluminum prices [3][8]. - Investment Recommendations: Suggested investments include companies with relatively cheap valuations and good mid-term growth potential, such as Luoyang Molybdenum and Jincheng Mining, as well as Chinese non-ferrous mining companies listed in Hong Kong [3][9]. Additional Important Insights - Macroeconomic Support for Metal Prices: An increase in macroeconomic expectations, low spot inventories, and the upcoming earnings season are expected to support rising prices for basic metals [7]. - Aluminum Industry Performance: The aluminum sector in both Hong Kong and A-share markets has shown strong performance, with expectations for annual earnings to exceed 20 billion, driven by a combination of beta, alpha, and dividend investment trends [10]. - Valuation of Aluminum Companies: Current valuations for aluminum companies are around 7 times earnings, indicating reasonable valuation levels with high safety margins. Companies like Yun Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, and Zhongfu International are highlighted as having positive allocation value [11]. - Trading Strategies for Basic Metals: Short-term trading may focus on liquidity easing expectations, while fundamental trading should consider early positioning before the peak season to validate liquidity expectations and assess demand performance post-peak [12].