固收 - 下半年信用债展望：票息占优，积极配置

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the credit bond market, particularly the investment strategies for credit bonds in the second half of 2025, with an emphasis on high coupon assets due to their scarcity and the current credit cycle's limitations [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - High Coupon Assets: The scarcity of high coupon assets continues, making them a key strategy for credit bond investment. The credit cycle is unlikely to expand in the short term, and the monetary policy has shifted to support the market, leading to a downward trend in interest rates [1][2]. - Government Bond Supply: The supply of government bonds has been front-loaded this year compared to last year, which may affect market supply and demand dynamics. The government has relaxed constraints and increased leverage, resulting in a balanced supply curve for government bonds [8][9]. - Credit ETF Policy: The introduction of new policies for credit ETFs has enhanced market liquidity and increased demand for credit bond allocations. This allows various institutions to manage their investments more effectively [20][21]. - High-Yield and City Investment Bonds: There has been a rapid contraction in high-yield and city investment bonds, with a significant drop from 23 trillion yuan to 7 trillion yuan. Short-duration high-yield and city investment bonds are favored, and institutions are advised to adopt a moderately aggressive allocation strategy [5][23]. - Fund Allocation Challenges: Broad-based funds face limited allocation space, with a negative growth rate in the mid-to-short-term coupon asset sector. Institutions are encouraged to engage in diagonal trading to navigate this environment [6][22]. Additional Important Insights - Market Dynamics: The credit bond market is characterized by a supply-demand imbalance, with high coupon assets remaining scarce despite an increase in overall supply from various bond types [4][16]. - Investment Strategy Recommendations: The recommendation is to adopt an aggressive credit strategy, focusing on high-yield and city investment bonds, while being cautious of the overall credit risk environment [22][35]. - Economic Environment: The current economic conditions, interest rate trends, and credit risk environment suggest a continued preference for high coupon assets, with expectations of further compression in yield spreads [24][26]. - Sector-Specific Insights: The manufacturing sector shows signs of improvement, supported by policies encouraging consumption and equipment upgrades, although sustainability remains uncertain [32]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and strategies discussed in the conference call, focusing on the credit bond market and its dynamics for the upcoming period.