7月电子策略：高切低与高举高打，孰优孰劣？

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the overseas computing power sector and domestic substitution sector within the semiconductor and technology industries [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Overseas Computing Power Sector - Strong demand for overseas computing power has led to historical high stock prices for related companies, with a projected PE ratio of 10-12 times for leading firms by 2026, indicating potential for further price increases [1][3]. - Major cloud providers like Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft are optimistic about AI applications, which have improved internal structures and advertising efficiency, leading to sustained capital expenditures (CAPEX) [2]. - ODM manufacturers, such as Hon Hai, have visibility on AI server orders extending to 2027, with supply unable to meet demand [2]. - Tight supply of HBM from manufacturers like SK Hynix and Micron has caused a surge in DDR5 and graphics memory prices, leading to structural changes in the memory market [2]. - Nvidia is expected to release a new computing card compliant with North American restrictions by the end of the year, amidst evolving US-China negotiations [5]. Domestic Substitution Sector - The domestic substitution sector is currently at a low point but presents investment value, particularly with the introduction of 28nm lithography machines stimulating the lithography supply chain [1][3]. - Companies like Huafeng Special Control and Juguang Technology are highlighted for their potential growth, with Huafeng expected to launch new products in the second half of the year and Juguang benefiting from low domestic penetration rates in its industry [1][3]. - A new equipment replacement policy for 2025, valued at 200 billion RMB, is set to drive domestic substitution in instruments and equipment, serving as a short-term catalyst [1][3]. Challenges and Future Outlook - The domestic computing power sector faces challenges primarily related to chip supply, with limited recovery since the trade war [4]. - Despite overall capital expenditures from domestic cloud providers remaining stable, the application of computing ICs in major internet companies will take time due to external restrictions and internal adaptation needs [4][5]. - The domestic C-end demand sector may experience impacts from reduced national subsidies and high base effects from the previous year, with investment opportunities expected to focus on individual stocks and third-quarter performance guidance [6]. Additional Important Insights - The overall sentiment in the overseas computing power sector remains optimistic, with expectations for continued growth driven by AI advancements and capital investments [2]. - The domestic substitution sector is seen as a long-term play, with specific companies showing promise due to their unique product offerings and market conditions [1][3].