配置黑白电龙头，拥抱新消费与新制造 - 2025年可选-家电中期策略

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The home appliance industry index has declined by 2.7% year-to-date, with significant differentiation within the sector. Appliance components have benefited from the robotics concept, rising nearly 12%, while major appliances, particularly white goods, have faced a 5% decline [1][2][3]. - The valuation of the home appliance sector is at a ten-year low, with the Shenyin Wanguo home appliance PE (TTM) dropping below 15 times, lower than the historical average [4]. Sales Performance - From January to May 2025, domestic online sales of home appliances grew by 14%, while exports increased by 6%. The North American market is under pressure, but the European market shows good demand, and emerging markets continue to grow rapidly [5]. Policy Impact - The national "old for new" policy has consumed approximately 160 billion yuan of its 300 billion yuan budget, with some provinces controlling the issuance of subsidies. However, the policy will continue throughout the year, expected to support demand in the second half [6]. Market Dynamics - The panoramic camera market is dominated by Xi'an Catering, which holds a 70% revenue share in 2023, with industry growth exceeding 30%. The entry of DJI is expected to aid industry development, but Xi'an Catering maintains a leading advantage [1][9][10]. - The sweeping robot market is competitive, with Chinese brands dominating. Stone Technology's floor washing machine business is expected to improve profit margins, with accelerated growth anticipated in Q3 and Q4 [1][14][15]. Investment Opportunities - The core investment themes for the home appliance industry include: 1. New consumer trends in home appliances, focusing on handheld smart imaging products and smart appliances. 2. New manufacturing trends, favoring quality companies with solid fundamentals and robotics initiatives. 3. Strong growth potential in leading black and white appliance companies, with white goods offering high dividend yields and low valuations, while black goods benefit from product upgrades [3][20]. Competitive Landscape - The air conditioning market is experiencing price competition primarily in mid-to-low-end products, with controlled impacts on leading companies' profits. Market share is expected to recover [2][21]. - Stone Technology is positioned to enhance its profit margins through accelerated growth in its washing machine segment, with a focus on quality growth and market share [15][17]. Future Growth Potential - Eu Sheng Electric has a competitive advantage in overseas production capacity, particularly in Malaysia, benefiting from lower tariffs and established relationships in the elderly care robot market, which has significant long-term growth potential [1][18]. - The black appliance sector is seeing product structure upgrades, particularly in Mini LED technology, which is expected to drive price increases and market share growth for leading companies like Hisense and TCL [19]. Conclusion - The home appliance industry is characterized by a mix of challenges and opportunities, with specific segments showing resilience and growth potential. The ongoing policy support and evolving consumer preferences are likely to shape the market dynamics in the coming quarters.