长江固收 10年期国债能破1

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the Chinese government bond market, specifically the 10-year treasury bonds and their yield performance [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Resistance Levels for Bond Yields - The 10-year treasury bond yield is facing strong resistance around 1.6%, with previous dips reaching approximately 1.57% [1][2]. - Current yields are fluctuating between 1.65% and 1.7%, indicating limited adjustment space [1][2]. - Investors are advised to consider buying when yields approach 1.65% but to be cautious of potential pullbacks near 1.6% [1][2]. 2. Expectations for Resuming Bond Trading - Market expectations for the resumption of government bond trading need to be postponed [3][4]. - The central bank requires two conditions to be met: an increase in bond supply and favorable yield conditions [4]. - There is no significant increase in bond supply expected in July, with only minor peaks anticipated in August and November [4]. 3. Central Bank's Stance on Yield Movements - The central bank is more inclined to accept rising yields rather than significant declines, which pose systemic risks [5]. - To avoid breaching critical levels like 1.6%, the central bank may wait for the market to adjust to higher levels before considering resumption of trading [5]. 4. Liquidity Management and Central Bank Operations - The notion of "liquidity withdrawal" when treasury bonds mature is inaccurate; central bank purchases actually inject liquidity into the system [6][7]. - The process of purchasing bonds involves a two-step operation that ultimately increases liquidity, although maturity payments do not directly affect base currency and liquidity [7]. 5. Interest Rate Cut Potential - The central bank's capacity for interest rate cuts this year is limited, with a potential cut of about 10 basis points expected around late Q3 or early Q4 [8]. - The timing of any cuts will depend on external conditions, with the focus on stabilizing growth in response to economic pressures [8]. 6. Current Market Liquidity Conditions - The market is experiencing marginal tightening of liquidity, with the central bank maintaining a relatively loose stance but with limits [9][10]. - The seven-day repo rate is around 1.5%, and the overnight repo rate is approximately 1.4%, indicating controlled liquidity to prevent fund misallocation [9][10]. 7. Impact of Interbank Leverage on Market Rates - High interbank leverage is currently observed, with a 0.3% increase in leverage for every 10 basis points recovery in yields [12]. - The current high leverage levels make further increases challenging without a drop in short-term rates [12]. 8. Future Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to face strong resistance at the 1.6% level, with significant attention needed on the U.S.-China trade tensions and economic fundamentals [13]. - Economic pressures in Q3, particularly in consumption and exports, could lead to a decline in bond yields if conditions worsen [13]. Other Important Insights - The central bank's preference for currency depreciation over appreciation indicates a strategic approach to managing economic stability [5]. - The discussion highlights the importance of monitoring external factors, such as trade relations and economic indicators, which could significantly impact the bond market dynamics [13].