BERNSTEIN：中国 GLP - 1 市场更新_季度反弹难掩整体放缓趋势

Summary of China GLP-1 Market Update Industry Overview - Industry: China Pharma and Biotech, specifically focusing on the GLP-1 market - Key Products: Semaglutide (Ozempic, Wegovy) and Tirzepatide Core Insights 1. Sales Performance: - Semaglutide sales in China increased by 110% QoQ in 1Q25 after a 49% QoQ decline in 4Q24, indicating easing supply constraints. However, YoY growth has slowed from over 100% to 19% [1][6][7] - The Chinese market contributes only 2-4% of global GLP-1 sales, significantly lagging behind the US market, which accounts for 70-80% [6][15] 2. Pricing Trends: - A 5-7% price decline for Semaglutide has resumed in 2025 after stabilization in late 2024. Hospital pricing fell by 7-8% QoQ in 1Q25 [2][23][33] - Tirzepatide is priced 2-3 times higher than Semaglutide, with monthly costs ranging from CNY 3,000 to CNY 4,000 [26][38] 3. Market Segmentation: - The GLP-1 market in China is segregated into hospital pricing (lower, NRDL-covered) and retail pricing (higher, not covered by insurance) [22][28] - New GLP-1 drugs like Wegovy and Tirzepatide are expected to remain outside of NRDL coverage, maintaining higher retail prices [22][29] 4. Competitive Landscape: - The market is becoming increasingly competitive with 7 domestic players showing weight loss efficacy over 15% [3] - United Laboratories has entered an exclusive licensing agreement with Novo Nordisk for UBT251, a new GLP-1 drug, with potential milestone payments up to CNY 1.8 billion [49] 5. Clinical Trials and Efficacy: - Recent trials show promising results for various GLP-1 drugs, with weight loss efficacy ranging from 9.5% to 19.8% in different studies [50][51] - Notable results include Raynovent's RAY1225 showing 15.1% weight loss in a Phase 2 trial and BrightGene's BGM0504 reporting up to 19.8% weight loss [50] Additional Important Insights - Supply Constraints: Despite recent improvements in supply, Tirzepatide continues to face shortages, affecting its availability in online pharmacies [29][25] - Long-term Pricing Outlook: The expectation is that domestic supply of new GLP-1 drugs will drive prices down significantly in the long term, potentially to CNY 300/month [2] - Investment Ratings: Companies like Hansoh, Innovent, and Jiangsu Hengrui are rated as Outperform, while CSPC is rated as Market-Perform [5] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the GLP-1 market in China, highlighting both opportunities and challenges within the industry.