2025-07-01 00:40Summary of U.S. Semiconductors & Semiconductor Capital Equipment Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the U.S. Semiconductors and Semiconductor Capital Equipment industry, particularly the competition among scale-up technologies: UALink (UAL), Scale Up Ethernet (SUE), and NVLink [1][2][3]. Core Points and Arguments - Importance of Interconnects: Interconnect technology is critical for the success of XPU (cross-processor unit) efforts, especially in scale-up designs where competition is intense among UAL, SUE, and NVLink [1]. - Current Adoption: Most hyperscalers currently utilize NVDA's NVLink for AI deployments, with some using Ethernet and PCIe for ASIC programs [3]. - Future Decisions: Hyperscalers and Tier 2 companies must decide on chip designs for future volumes by 2027, with NVLink being a dominant choice due to its proven deployment [3]. - Technology Development: UAL was ratified in April 2025, with the first design expected to be implemented with AMD Helios in mid-2026. However, readiness issues may push this to 2027 [6]. - Switching Partners: UAL has limited backing from established switch vendors, raising concerns about its adoption outside AMD. SUE, led by AVGO, has a more established technology portfolio [6][8]. - Latency and Performance: UAL claims to offer lower latency and an open ecosystem, while SUE is based on standard Ethernet but has higher latency. NVLink is noted for its low latency and proven reliability [8][10]. Key Comparisons - Latency: - UAL: <1 microsecond RTT - SUE: <2 microseconds RTT - NVLink: ~0.3 microseconds RTT [11]. - Architecture: - UAL uses a custom protocol stack optimized with PCIe technology. - SUE is based on Ethernet MAC/packet-based architecture. - NVLink employs a proprietary stack from NVDA [11]. - Availability: NVLink is currently available, while UAL and SUE are expected to be broadly available by late 2026/2027 [9]. Additional Insights - Ecosystem Considerations: The success of these technologies will depend on the availability of interconnect vendors. UAL has support from ALAB and MRVL, while SUE is backed by AVGO [20]. - Future Specifications: UAL plans to release a 128G Specification in July 2025, which will utilize a PCIe-based PHY, enhancing its capabilities [24]. - Market Dynamics: The competition among UAL, SUE, and NVLink will focus on reliability, latency, bandwidth, and power efficiency, with each technology having its advantages and disadvantages [7][10]. Conclusion - The U.S. semiconductor industry is at a pivotal point with the emergence of new interconnect technologies. The competition among UAL, SUE, and NVLink will shape the future of AI and high-performance computing, with significant implications for hyperscalers and semiconductor companies alike. The readiness and adoption of these technologies will be crucial for maintaining competitive advantages in the market [2][3][6].