如何看待银行股持续新高

Summary of Conference Call on Banking Sector Industry Overview - The banking sector is experiencing a continuous rise in stock prices driven by multiple favorable factors, including significant inflows from insurance funds due to OCI account reforms and advantages in dividend assets, as well as a shift in public fund allocation, with an expected inflow of 200 billion yuan, accounting for 6.4% of the total market capitalization of bank stocks [1][2] Key Points and Arguments - Macroeconomic Context: The Chinese economy has shown signs of recovery after a period of relative weakness, benefiting banks as creditors. In contrast, during periods of high inflation in the U.S., bank stocks performed poorly, aligning with Keynesian monetary theory that inflation transfers wealth from creditors to debtors [1][2] - Financial Sector Contribution: The financial sector's contribution to GDP increased from 7.1% at the end of 2020 to 7.3% currently, with profit contributions rising from 39% in 2022 to 41% [1][2] - Core Capital Adequacy: The core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio for banks reached a historical high, increasing from 10.3% in 2023 to 11% by the end of 2024 [1][3] - Interest Margin Trends: Although the interest margin has decreased from 1.74 to 1.43, the decline is limited. It is expected that the reduction in interest margin will narrow to 12-15 basis points in 2025, an improvement over the 17 basis points expected in 2024 [1][7] - Credit Risk Management: With policy support, the risk associated with corporate assets, including real estate and local government financing, has improved significantly, leading to a continued decline in credit costs. Retail risk is marginally increasing but remains low in proportion, allowing banks to maintain stable retail asset quality [1][8] Additional Insights - International Comparison: Historical data from Japan (1995-2013) shows that during prolonged low-price periods, the banking sector can outperform the market through effective management of non-performing assets and profit recovery, suggesting a potential similar trajectory for Chinese banks if current conditions persist [4] - Future Pricing Strategies: The pricing strategy for banks may shift from a focus on stable dividends to emphasizing growth potential, although this transition will not happen immediately [5][6] - ROE Expectations: The return on equity (ROE) for listed banks is expected to remain above 9% under neutral assumptions for 2025, even in extreme scenarios where interest margins decline by 20 basis points [9][10] - Investment Recommendations: There is an optimistic outlook for bank stocks, with recommendations for high-quality regional city commercial banks in cities like Chengdu, Jiangsu, Hangzhou, and Nanjing, as well as previously recommended quality joint-stock banks [2][11]