再call铜：库存供应双底的历史时刻

Summary of Conference Call on Copper Market Industry Overview - The copper market is experiencing a significant price increase, with expectations that prices may peak between $10,500 and $11,000 in the near term [1][2] - The market conditions are characterized by low supply growth, poor inventory levels, and low non-commercial long positions, which are more favorable than in May 2024 [2] Key Points and Arguments - Price Dynamics: The potential for a short squeeze in the copper market could lead to prices exceeding the May 2024 high of $11,000, driven by upstream restocking, reduced smelting output, and potential LME and Shanghai copper short squeezes [1][2] - US Restocking Impact: US restocking efforts are expected to continue driving copper prices higher in July and August, despite current high inventory levels. The price differential is motivating restocking activities [3][4] - Global Supply and Demand: The copper market is anticipated to enter a super cycle due to low supply growth (less than 1%) against a demand growth rate of approximately 2%. This imbalance is expected to create a large-scale inventory cycle lasting 3 to 5 years [3][6] - Second Round of Restocking: The second round of restocking is expected to begin in China and Europe after US restocking is completed. Europe currently has very low LME inventory levels, and China may also face a short squeeze [5][6] Additional Important Insights - Future Price Expectations: The next wave of price increases is projected to occur in 2026 or after the implementation of the 232 tariffs, with prices potentially returning to the $11,000 to $12,000 range [5][6] - Investment Opportunities: Investors are encouraged to consider traditional mining companies such as Zijin Mining, Western Mining, and Deep Tianma Nonferrous, as well as Hong Kong-listed companies like Minmetals and China Gold International, which are showing good performance after previous valuation pressures [7]