Jefferies：工业人工智能 + 专家日_核聚变

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Nuclear Fusion Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call was on the nuclear fusion industry, which is recognized for having the highest power intensity among all power generation technologies [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - Current Stage of Development: Nuclear fusion technology is still in its early stages, with expectations to start generating power by 2035 and achieving economic viability by 2045 [1][3]. - Types of Fusion: The expert discussed four major types of nuclear fusion: 1. Deuterium-tritium (D-T) fusion 2. Deuterium-deuterium (D-D) fusion 3. Deuterium-helium3 (D-He3) fusion 4. Hydrogen-boron (p-B11) fusion - Currently, the focus is on D-T fusion, but D-He3 and p-B11 are seen as potential next-generation options due to their advantages in energy conversion ratios and safety [3][4]. - Safety and Technical Barriers: Nuclear fusion is considered inherently safe due to strict conditions required for the reaction. However, there are significant technical barriers, including high-temperature ignition and material durability against radiation damage [2][5]. Key Projects and Developments - Global Projects: Countries worldwide are actively promoting nuclear fusion research. Notable projects include: - BEST project in Hefei, China, aiming for net energy gain (Q > 1) and expected to be commissioned in 2028. - SPARC project in the US, utilizing high-temperature superconductors to reduce equipment size and costs, expected to start commissioning in 2026 [4]. - Investment Opportunities: Successful operation of these projects could benefit stocks related to high-temperature superconductors and uranium-related stocks due to increased nuclear plant construction [4]. Commercialization and Challenges - Commercialization Progress: The pace of commercialization is accelerating, with increasing financing and development of new technologies. However, challenges remain, including: 1. High costs of raw materials (e.g., tritium and helium-3 priced at USD 20 billion per ton). 2. Technical barriers related to achieving the necessary high temperatures for fusion reactions [5] [4]. Additional Important Insights - Breakthroughs in R&D: Recent advancements in research and development may expedite the progress of nuclear fusion technology, which has been under exploration since the 1950s [2][3]. - Market Implications: The expected growth in nuclear fusion technology could lead to significant market shifts, particularly benefiting companies involved in related technologies and materials [4][5].