“反内卷”——供给侧改革机遇：钢铁+电解铝+硅！

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the supply-side reform opportunities in the steel, electrolytic aluminum, and silicon industries, emphasizing a shift from previous reforms that focused on upstream raw material de-leveraging and price increases to a more comprehensive approach addressing the entire industrial chain's challenges [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments Supply-Side Reform - The current supply-side reform aims to optimize resource allocation and is characterized by low profitability, low inventory, and low production in the steel industry, making it susceptible to policy and expectation-driven catalysts [1][5]. - The reform is expected to unfold in two phases: the first phase driven by expectations leading to quick gains, and the second phase following policy implementation that will gradually improve corporate profitability [1][8]. Policy Implications - The Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting highlighted the need to eliminate low-price competition and force the exit of outdated production capacity, particularly in the steel, electrolytic aluminum, and silicon sectors [2]. - Policies are in place to restrict capacity expansion and end price wars, promoting quality upgrades and fair competition [2][7]. Industry Performance - The steel sector has shown low profitability, with rebar profits at only 100 yuan per ton, which is considered relatively good in recent years [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum industry has a production capacity ceiling of 45 million tons, with current capacity at 44.14 million tons, ensuring stable profitability due to domestic power cost advantages [10][11]. Market Trends - The aluminum sector is currently in a favorable cycle, with expectations of a significant seasonal uptrend in the second half of the year due to low inventory and improving macroeconomic conditions [12]. - The silicon industry, particularly polysilicon, has potential for replicating the success of the aluminum sector due to its high energy consumption, which allows for effective monitoring and control of production capacity [15][16]. Additional Important Insights - The current investment climate is characterized by short-term opportunities driven by policy catalysts, with a neutral assessment of the magnitude of these movements [8]. - Historical data suggests that supply-side reforms can lead to significant market rallies, as seen from 2015 to 2017, where prices increased by 50% and equity values doubled or more [18]. - The silicon sector's production is concentrated, with the top five polysilicon producers accounting for 70% of global output, which aids in controlling capacity and ensuring stability [17]. Conclusion - The conference call emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy implementation and market conditions to identify potential investment opportunities in the steel, electrolytic aluminum, and silicon industries, particularly as these sectors undergo significant structural changes due to supply-side reforms [1][2][18].