外资交易台：股票市场展望——持续前行

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Equities Market Performance: Global markets have benefited from dovish Fed expectations, de-escalation of Middle East tensions, and progress in U.S. trade negotiations, leading to growth pricing across assets [1][3] - S&P 500 and Nasdaq Performance: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices closed Q2 2025 up 10.5% and 17.6% respectively, defying bearish consensus post-liberation day [1] - Emerging Markets: Emerging market equities have had one of the strongest starts in recent years, with the MSCI EM index rallying 14% in 1H, outperforming the S&P 500 by 9 percentage points [41] Core Insights - Economic Resilience: The U.S. economy has shown strong resilience despite various challenges, including tariffs and geopolitical tensions, allowing the stock market to continue its upward trajectory [3] - Market Sentiment: There is a sense of comfort in the market regarding the business-friendly stance of the Trump administration, particularly with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent gaining investor respect [5] - Earnings Expectations: 2Q consensus expectations for earnings have set a low bar for companies to beat, suggesting potential for positive surprises [5][33] Financial Metrics - Gold Performance: Gold has had its best first half in 45 years, up 26% in 1H25 [2] - AI Sector Growth: The GS US TMT AI Leaders Basket (GSTMTAIL) is up 47% in 1H25, following significant gains in previous years [2] - S&P 500 EPS Growth: Analysts forecast S&P 500 EPS year-over-year growth to decelerate to 4% in Q2 from 12% in Q1, indicating a slowdown in corporate profit growth [33] Investment Opportunities - Stock Selection: The research team has identified stocks with high and durable topline growth and operating margin expansion, such as UBER, CMG, CCJ, and NOW, as attractive investment opportunities [35][36] - Cyclical Stocks: For investors looking to gain exposure to cyclical inflections, stocks like DE, ODFL, KEYS, and CMC are highlighted for expected topline growth and profitability rebounds in 2025/2026 [36] Risks and Considerations - Market Risks: The market has relaxed on many risks, but upcoming events such as the July 9 tariff deadline and potential inflation concerns could disrupt market stability, especially at high valuations [56] - Momentum Factor Risks: There are key risks to watch in the momentum factor, particularly the dynamics between long software and short semiconductors [58] Additional Insights - Biotechnology Sector: The biotechnology sector is noted as an exception where interest rates play a larger role than growth in driving share prices, making it attractive for investors expecting declining bond yields [13] - Korean Market: The Korean market has shown robust gains and is expected to continue outperforming due to upcoming financial market reforms and attractive valuations [43][44] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into market performance, economic resilience, investment opportunities, and potential risks.