“周期不休，成长不止：农林牧渔25年中报业绩前瞻

Summary of Industry and Company Insights from Conference Call Industry Overview - Agricultural Industry Performance: The agricultural industry in the first half of 2025 is relatively stable, with grain prices at a low point and pig prices showing a year-on-year recovery, although they are declining on a quarter-on-quarter basis. Poultry prices are affected by weak demand in the catering sector and abundant supply, leading to a continued downturn in the poultry farming sector [2][3]. Key Points on Specific Sectors 1. Pig Farming Industry - Price and Profitability: The average pig price is approximately 14.8 yuan per kilogram, down 4.2% year-on-year. However, due to a greater decline in farming costs compared to pig prices, industry profitability has significantly improved, with average profit per head around 70 yuan, compared to a loss of 25 yuan in the same period last year [3][4]. - Company Performance: Major companies like Muyuan Foods are expected to report over 10.5 billion yuan in profits for the first half of the year, with a 90% increase in Q2 profits. Other companies like Shennong Group and Wens Foodstuffs are also showing strong profitability despite challenges in certain segments [4]. 2. Poultry Farming Industry - Current Situation: The white feather broiler market remains at a low point, with upstream companies benefiting from downstream capacity expansion. However, the price drop in upstream is greater than in downstream. The average selling price of layer chicks has increased by 40% year-on-year to about 4.3 yuan per chick due to supply constraints [5]. - Financial Performance: Companies like Shengnong Development expect a 22% year-on-year growth in Q2 performance, while Wens and Lihua are facing losses in the yellow feather chicken segment, averaging losses of 0.2 to 0.3 yuan per bird [5]. 3. Pet Food Market - Market Dynamics: The domestic pet food market remains robust, with online GMV growth of 17% in the first five months of 2025, compared to 14% last year. However, companies focused on export OEM are facing declines due to US-China trade tensions, while strong domestic brands are expected to maintain high growth rates [6][9]. - Company Performance: Companies like Guibao and Zhongchong are projected to see significant growth, with expected Q2 growth rates of around 40% and 31%, respectively. In contrast, companies heavily reliant on export OEM may see stagnant or slightly declining performance [10]. 4. Feed and Animal Health Sub-Industries - Sales Growth: The feed and animal health sectors are benefiting from a recovery in livestock numbers and stable profitability. For instance, Bangji Technology reported over 200% year-on-year growth in feed sales, while Haida Group expects a growth rate of 25% to 30% [7]. - Vaccine Demand: There has been a recovery in vaccine demand, with prices for certain products like Tylosin and Tiamulin increasing by 30% and 10%, respectively. Companies like Keqian Bio are expected to see a 20% to 25% growth in Q2 performance [8]. Recommendations for Investment - Investment Focus: Recommendations include focusing on post-cycle breeding varieties, feed, and animal health sectors. Key companies to watch include Bangji Technology, Haida Group, and leading vaccine producers like Keqian Bio and Huisheng Bio. Attention should also be given to low-valuation leading breeding companies with strong performance [11]. - Market Outlook: If the pig farming sector can stabilize and avoid overproduction, there is significant potential for valuation increases in the industry, particularly for companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [11].