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Solid 1H25 – Raise Full-year Volume to 3mn_ Geely Automobile Holdings _ Asia Pacific
2025-07-07 00:51

Summary of Geely Automobile Holdings Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Geely Automobile Holdings - Industry: China Autos & Shared Mobility - Current Stock Rating: Overweight [4] - Price Target: HK$21.00, representing a 32% upside from the current price of HK$15.96 [4] Key Financial Highlights - Revised Full-Year Volume Guidance: Increased by 11% to 3 million units from 2.71 million units, primarily driven by Geely Galaxy [2] - Sales Performance: - Geely Brand (including Galaxy): Sold 1.2 million units in 1H25, a 57% increase YoY, exceeding the previous target of 2 million units [2] - ZEEKR Tech Group: Sold 245,000 units in 1H25, a 14% increase YoY, with a full-year target of 710,000 units [2] - Overseas Sales: 184,000 units in 1H25, down 8% YoY, trailing the full-year target of 467,000 units [2] - June Sales: 236,000 units sold, a 42% increase YoY, with 1.4 million units sold in 1H25, up 47% YoY [6] Product and Market Insights - Geely Galaxy: Contributed 39% of total sales volume and approximately 85% of the year-to-date increment [2] - Upcoming Models: Anticipated launches in 2H25 include the A7 and M9, targeting NEVs in the sub-Rmb150k segment [3] - Brand Integration: Monitoring potential scale benefits and cost savings to counteract price pressures in the mass market segment [3] Risks and Considerations - ZEEKR Group Privatization: Potential privatization remains a near-term concern [3] - Market Demand: A notable slowdown in domestic vehicle demand could impact performance [9] - NEV Business Losses: Expanding losses in Geely's NEV businesses amid price competition is a risk [9] - Overseas Sales Competition: Increased competition and protectionism may affect overseas sales [9] Financial Projections - Revenue Estimates: - 2025: Rmb285,192 million - 2026: Rmb350,643 million - 2027: Rmb377,926 million [4] - EBITDA Estimates: - 2025: Rmb21,211 million - 2026: Rmb28,457 million - 2027: Rmb32,366 million [4] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): Projected to increase from Rmb1.68 in 2025 to Rmb2.40 in 2027 [4] Conclusion Geely Automobile Holdings is positioned for growth with a revised sales target and strong performance in the first half of 2025. However, the company faces challenges from market dynamics and competition, particularly in the NEV sector. Monitoring upcoming product launches and market conditions will be crucial for assessing future performance.