大摩宏观闭门会：反内卷，见真章？关注三个重要政策的拐点 -纪要

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the impact of the "Big and Beautiful Act" in the U.S. and its implications for the U.S. economy and global markets [1][2][8][13] - Discussion on U.S.-China trade relations and tariffs, particularly in the context of the upcoming deadlines [3][4][14] - Examination of the Chinese consumption sector and structural reforms aimed at stimulating consumption [5][20][21] - Analysis of the AI industry in both the U.S. and China, highlighting differences in demand and supply challenges [6][26][27] Core Points and Arguments - The "Big and Beautiful Act" is expected to boost the U.S. economy in the short term through infrastructure investment and tech R&D, but raises concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability, with potential deficits reaching 7% of GDP [1][2][8][13] - Trade tensions between the U.S. and other countries may evolve in three scenarios: extension of the current tariff pause, escalation of tariffs, or reaching new agreements, with ongoing uncertainty affecting global economic confidence [3][4] - China is implementing structural reforms to stimulate consumption, with signals from both central and local governments indicating a focus on rebalancing the economy [5][11] - AI demand in the U.S. is strong, with significant capital expenditure growth, while China's AI sector faces challenges in actual profit realization and hardware supply constraints [6][26][27] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The expected limited appreciation of the RMB against the USD in the next 12 months, with a potential depreciation of the USD by at least 6% [7] - The Chinese stock market is predicted to experience volatility and range-bound trading due to tariff uncertainties and policy expectations [17][19] - New consumer support measures, such as fertility subsidies, are being discussed, but their immediate impact on consumption may be limited [21][22] - The performance of consumer stocks during the mid-year reporting period is expected to show resilience due to cost management and profit margin expansion [23][24] - Recommendations for consumer investments include companies with stable earnings and growth potential, such as Anta and Baisheng China, while cautioning against chasing high-growth stocks without proper timing [25]