大摩宏观闭门会：反内卷，见真章？关注三个重要政策的拐点-原文

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the macroeconomic policies in the United States and their implications for global markets, particularly focusing on the "Big and Beautiful" bill and trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Core Points and Arguments 1. Impact of the "Big and Beautiful" Bill: The bill is expected to increase the U.S. fiscal deficit significantly, potentially adding nearly $3 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt levels [18][19][35]. 2. Trade Tensions and Tariff Uncertainty: The upcoming deadline on July 9 for tariff negotiations is critical. The expectation is that the current tariff structure will remain largely unchanged, leading to continued uncertainty in global trade and investment [5][6][17][38]. 3. China's Economic Response: China's economic situation is distinct, with a focus on internal reforms and consumption stimulation. The government is expected to prioritize structural reforms over currency adjustments to address economic imbalances [11][14][23][24]. 4. Consumer Spending Trends: There are mixed signals in consumer spending, with high-end consumption facing challenges. The introduction of policies like fertility subsidies is under scrutiny for their potential impact on consumer behavior [2][49][50]. 5. AI Investment Trends: Despite a positive narrative around AI investments in China, actual capital expenditure and profitability remain uncertain. The U.S. continues to show strong demand for AI-related investments [2][22][40]. 6. Market Sentiment and Stock Performance: The U.S. stock market is expected to experience volatility in the short term due to tariff uncertainties, but a longer-term positive outlook remains as the market adjusts to new fiscal policies [39][40][41]. 7. Monetary Policy Outlook: The Federal Reserve is not expected to cut interest rates this year, but a significant easing cycle is anticipated starting in March next year, which could support the stock market [41][42]. 8. Global Asset Allocation Trends: There is a shift in global asset allocation, with investors diversifying away from U.S. assets due to concerns over long-term debt sustainability, while still maintaining confidence in U.S. corporate performance [21][30][48]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. Reform Necessity in China: The need for a shift from an investment-driven growth model to one that emphasizes consumption is highlighted as crucial for sustainable economic growth [23][24][26]. 2. Fiscal Policy Adjustments: The call for reforming the fiscal system to reduce reliance on production-based taxes and enhance income-based taxation is emphasized as a means to stimulate consumer demand [24][25]. 3. Long-term Economic Strategy: The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session in October is seen as a pivotal moment for potential policy shifts that could impact China's economic trajectory [28][29][31]. 4. Consumer Price Pressures: Ongoing deflationary pressures are affecting consumer prices, making it difficult for companies to maintain margins and profitability [50][52]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and its implications for investment strategies.