2025-07-07 16:32Summary of Stablecoin Industry and Market Dynamics Industry Overview - The stablecoin industry is characterized by its reliance on fiat currency credit, with USD-pegged stablecoins depending on the credibility of the US dollar. [1] - The stablecoin ecosystem consists of three segments: upstream (infrastructure, issuers, asset management), midstream (payment service providers, exchanges, cross-chain clearing institutions), and downstream (transaction settlement, cross-border payments). [1][4] Key Players and Market Share - USDT, issued by Tether, holds a dominant market position with approximately 60% market share and a market capitalization exceeding $150 billion. However, its reserve transparency has been questioned. [3] - USDC, issued by Circle, is viewed as a compliance benchmark but incurs higher costs, with over 50% of its revenue allocated to distribution expenses. [6] - DAI is a collateralized stablecoin that uses over-collateralization of crypto assets to enhance risk resistance, relying on complex algorithms. [6] Market Dynamics - The stablecoin market exhibits a "dual super, many strong" structure, with USDT and USDC accounting for about 85% of the market share. [5] - Stablecoins enhance the USD's status as a global reserve currency and may further penetrate international trade and financial systems through digital means. [1][6] - The expansion of stablecoin usage can increase fiat transaction volume, reinforcing its reserve status. [1] Regulatory Impact - Hong Kong's new regulations, set to take effect in August, represent the first comprehensive regulatory framework globally, expected to drive systemic changes in the industry. Beneficiaries include cross-border payment and clearing service providers, digital infrastructure firms, and banks involved in IT system upgrades. [11][12] Implications for the Chinese Yuan - The development of stablecoins presents both challenges and opportunities for the Chinese Yuan. While the Yuan is currently not a mainstream pegged currency, China is accelerating the development of a digital RMB to enhance its international influence. [7][9] - The stablecoin market could serve as a significant support for the internationalization of the RMB, reducing reliance on the SWIFT system and expanding usage scenarios. [14][15] Future Projections - By 2030, the RMB's share in global cross-border trade payments is projected to increase from 4% to 10%, driven by the growth of stablecoin technology. [16] - Traditional third-party payment companies are expected to benefit significantly from the increase in RMB cross-border payment volumes, with companies like LianLian and Newland positioned to capitalize on this growth. [18][19] Potential Beneficiaries in the Industry - Key beneficiaries in the stablecoin ecosystem include: - Payment service providers (e.g., LianLian, LaKaLa) - Digital infrastructure and security service providers (e.g., Hengbao) - IT system upgrade firms in banking (e.g., Yuxin Technology) [11][22] - The issuance of stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong is expected to create significant opportunities for early adopters in the sandbox experiment. [21] Conclusion - The stablecoin industry is poised for significant growth and transformation, with regulatory developments in Hong Kong likely to catalyze systemic changes. The interplay between stablecoins and traditional currencies, particularly the USD and RMB, will shape the future of global finance and cross-border transactions. [1][11][14]